Stop Trying to Predict the 2024 Election

Go to https://ground.news/Leeja to stay fully informed on the election. Sign up through my link this month to get 40% off unlimited access. | The latest presidential polls, it turns out, are pretty useless. It’s impossible to tell who’s going to win this far in advance. Let’s talk about how to interpret presidential polls, why they’re wrong, and what to pay attention to instead.
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CHAPTERS
0:00 – 3:13 – Intro
3:14 – 4:48 – Current polls
4:49 – 7:32 – The history
7:33 – 11:45 – The evolution
11:46 – 14:25 – The 2016 problem
14:26 – 19:49 – The 2020 problem
19:50 – 20:24 – Economic optimism
20:35 – 22:15 – How to know if poll data is reliable
@LeejaMiller
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
📰 Go to https://ground.news/Leeja to stay fully informed on the election. Sign up through my link this month to get 40% off unlimited access.
🚨 A new poll dropped after I filmed this video showing that people feel more positive about Trump now than they did in 2020. I break that poll down in the extended, ad-free, member-exclusive version of this video, available to channel members (hint: click JOIN above) or Patreon subscribers https://www.patreon.com/leejamiller
@Jon-zj2cn
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I defer to professor Allan Lichtman. He built a scientific model for predicting presidential elections with an accuracy of 93%.
@joesmith-em2cd
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Here after Biden dropped out…😂😂😂
@Leonard-td5rn
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Kamela has no program to evaluate
@Leonard-td5rn
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I wonder why Democrats would want to live under.a communist ruler and who wrecked California
@Leonard-td5rn
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
People already tired of project 2025 B'S propaganda and scare mongering
@Leonard-td5rn
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
The either is wearing off the voters are starting to recover from Kamela news media induced trance
@LinuxLightHouse
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
The forgotten Man
@ALADDIN22091978
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Polls work in a landslide election.
In close elections, polls not enough , shows the margin of error .
@chenhuang1616
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Her voice is annoying
@jacksonmadison9994
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I predict that Kamala Harris will win. She has 8 True Keys and 5 False Keys on Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys model.
@Josh-y4r
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Ooh math!
@terryallen6005
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Dolly parton for president sylvestor stalone for vice president
@camillebeaujolie1271
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
The polls I find most interesting are ones that ask about specific policies without saying which party endorses it. A recent YouGov poll did just that and the majority of the respondents approved of the Democratic platform and panned the Republican policies (not that there are fleshed out, really). All but one of Biden's 28 policies received above 50% approval, while only 9 of Trump's 28 were favoured by a majority.
This demonstrated to me that people many of the people who are choosing Trump in the traditional "which candidate" polls are really only going by their parties and not the substance of the platforms. (I only single out the Trump voters because the responses for the Dems could be on the candidate, or the policies, or a combination of both, while Trump's policies are unfavourable … and I would bet even more unfavourable if they polled on the contents of P2025 specifically.)
@Shark-pj8in
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Damm, i hate that we dont use the popular vote…
@fieuline2536
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
"I've never been polled, they must be meaningless" is an idea I'm seeing a lot in the comments, and it's such a cope take lol
@fenderblue9485
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
There are going to be a lot more people voting blue to save democracy, Wait till Project 2025 and what the GOP has in store for the Americans. People are fed up with the chaos and destruction from a previous failed ex president. America is now strong and the greatest country on the planet.
@TodaysAnalysis
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
vote blue🔵🟦🔷🔹
@andymei3321
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Why not just ban polls all together?
@B00mG0esTheDyn0mite
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I used to dislike democrats and now I don't like either party. I find myself thinking why can't these 2 parties ever solve any problems to make this country run smoothly? Why is it so difficult to just run as 1?
@siamkhan2892
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Most likely Trump will win
@ianw0ng
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
i trust dr. alan lichtman with his 13 keys than any pundit and pollster. he has predicted every presidential election with 100% accuracy with his method.
@josephwilliammarek9566
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
The statistical predictions of Allan Lichtman are interesting.
@scottblubaugh
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
It’s absolutely inexcusable that this race is even close. I’ll never understand why republicans demand to live under a fascist dictator.
@ChaosActual1
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I honestly expect the whole election to be decided by 2 factors, the debate tomorrow, and how many people who would have otherwise voted republican or democrat who instead vote for RFK.
As a lower middle-class guy myself, the polls saying people are optimistic about the economy are the most out of touch string of words I've ever heard in one place.
Say what you will about Trump's mouth, but while he was in office, the lower classes had a much easier time, and we saw a lot more opportunities for increasing our income.
@lindencamelback2305
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Polls are useful as it allows campaigns to adjust their message(s). Of course the only poll that matters is when the voter walks into the voting booth.
@aspiring.creative.person6092
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Holy shit the 3% about Israel/Gaza situation really shocked me just now :0
@wankel1988
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Trump will win because of the economy
@altarancho
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I don’t trust polls because highly slanted news sites always have links to polls with obvious answers. I’ve seen it on both sides. On an article about why gun control is bad, there will be one that says “should illegal immigrants be eligible for welfare?????”
@murderinthemaking
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
2016 polls were spot on , given the 2% margin of error
@Momoeki21
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Hillary lost because people were certain Trump would never step into the White House and didn’t vote. That was a big mistake. That’s why he did not win again in 2020, we made sure we went to the polls and voted!!
@RalphEwell-s5o
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
She doesnt know anymore than any.of us.
@SamuelrossGriffin
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Love your show
@MicheleTirado-vd2oj
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
Also Religious leaders push for Trump
@MicheleTirado-vd2oj
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
The scary thing is I'm surrounded by Trump supporters people that don't understand their voting against their own needs. Immigrants that become citizens feel that it was easier with Trump to do so. Not that it was Congress relatives of mine that also credit Trump for what Congress had to fight for My coworkers like him for one thing. My neighbors like him for the opposite thing, for things on extreme platforms that don't even agree with each other and it's everywhere I go. How could you like him for opening the border and your next door neighbor like him for closing them. Which one did he do? The point is that everybody loves him as a felon. He's become more relatable to some and a martyr to others
@thirdpowerful1
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
I bet it's because of patriarchy and capitalism.
@LittleMsShine
October 31, 2024 at 7:44 am
As a society can we stop putting such a focus on the presidential race and also acknowledge the equally important congress races and local elections?