State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490
Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch).
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sb
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
*Transcript:*
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
*Correction:*
Here’s an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes:
https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png
*CONTACT LEX:*
*Feedback* – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
*AMA* – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
*Hiring* – join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
*Other* – other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact
*EPISODE LINKS:*
Nathan’s X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan’s Blog: https://interconnects.ai
Nathan’s Website: https://natolambert.com
Nathan’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan’s GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert
Nathan’s Book: https://rlhfbook.com
Sebastian’s X: https://x.com/rasbt
Sebastian’s Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian’s Website: https://sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian’s YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka
Sebastian’s GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt
Sebastian’s Books:
Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch
Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch
*SPONSORS:*
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
*Box:* Intelligent content management platform.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sb
*Quo:* Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses.
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*OUTLINE:*
0:00 – Introduction
1:57 – China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
10:38 – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
21:38 – Best AI for coding
28:29 – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
40:08 – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
48:05 – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
1:04:12 – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
1:37:18 – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
1:58:11 – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
2:21:03 – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
2:24:49 – Silicon Valley bubble
2:28:46 – Text diffusion models and other new research directions
2:34:28 – Tool use
2:38:44 – Continual learning
2:44:06 – Long context
2:50:21 – Robotics
2:59:31 – Timeline to AGI
3:06:47 – Will AI replace programmers?
3:25:18 – Is the dream of AGI dying?
3:32:07 – How AI will make money?
3:36:29 – Big acquisitions in 2026
3:41:01 – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
3:53:35 – Manhattan Project for AI
4:00:10 – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
4:08:15 – Future of human civilization
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@lexfridman
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sa
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
0:00 – Introduction
1:57 – China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
10:38 – ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
21:38 – Best AI for coding
28:29 – Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
40:08 – Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
48:05 – AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
1:04:12 – How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
1:37:18 – Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
1:58:11 – Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
2:21:03 – Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
2:24:49 – Silicon Valley bubble
2:28:46 – Text diffusion models and other new research directions
2:34:28 – Tool use
2:38:44 – Continual learning
2:44:06 – Long context
2:50:21 – Robotics
2:59:31 – Timeline to AGI
3:06:47 – Will AI replace programmers?
3:25:18 – Is the dream of AGI dying?
3:32:07 – How AI will make money?
3:36:29 – Big acquisitions in 2026
3:41:01 – Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
3:53:35 – Manhattan Project for AI
4:00:10 – Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
4:08:15 – Future of human civilization
Transcript:
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
Correction:
Here's an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes:
https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png
CONTACT LEX:
Feedback – give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
Hiring – join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
Other – other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact
EPISODE LINKS:
Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: https://interconnects.ai
Nathan's Website: https://natolambert.com
Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan's GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert
Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com
Sebastian's X: https://x.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's Website: https://sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka
Sebastian's GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Books:
Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch
Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch
SPONSORS:
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
Box: Intelligent content management platform.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sa
Quo: Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/quo-ep490-sa
UPLIFT Desk: Standing desks and office ergonomics.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/uplift_desk-ep490-sa
Fin: AI agent for customer service.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/fin-ep490-sa
Shopify: Sell stuff online.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep490-sa
CodeRabbit: AI-powered code reviews.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/coderabbit-ep490-sa
LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep490-sa
Perplexity: AI-powered answer engine.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sa
@johnowens5342
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
I started working with AI last year by getting an NVIDIA DGX spark. My sons and I took Python coding classes over last summer. We are developing a Llama model for my business to submit data to multiple platforms we work on. It is going well and has been a learning experience.
@dankelly
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Claude > ChatGPT > Gemini
@TheMighty_T
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
@9:28 there is a graph showing a bunch of AI chatbot companies but where is xAI (Grok)? There is 0% in the "other" category? Is xAI not part of these software technologies? I've seen this around other sources too, so am just curious if i'm just not understanding the finer details on what AI and chatbots are?
@RickTinCedarHill
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
AI will be causing massive upheaval. History shows us this. It is part of the human condition. Hold on for the bumpy ride.
@Bronson-f9d
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
It’s already sentient
@end.olives
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Monotone Jew demon
@UnrealRealness
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
OpenAI is on the fast track towards bankruptcy. Hopefully they are not bailed out by the gov't, but who knows.
@TJ-hs1qm
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Companies that are doing "Good" is such a morally overstretched nonsense. That is not how capitalism works.
@DanielLouis
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
a comprehensive deeply video
@webdeveloperninja9220
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Love lex pushed back a bit on the AI coding everything, from my experience the output is not great for large systems
@shalita310
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Even reading the summery is a slog
@dbvoid1485
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Nathan is the first male I notice with the artificial gnarly voice tick: https://youtu.be/rHHt-tYS2es?si=T99fKqJFbY-Dhuh-
@pavodindoyi3415
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Unbelievable content I love spending time on
@lev1ato
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
I understand and can follow lot of stuff in this video, but still unemployed
@michelelamberti1327
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
AI = Artificial Income
@James777x
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
This guy is clearly a shill for OpenAI.
@Akuma.73
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
3:10 there is also R1-lite. Which was released before R1 but no one paid any attention to it.
@bopettersson2783
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Why is Grok not on the list
@ForcedevilX-rn1rf
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Dead tech. These aliens are invested.
@Ponosening
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
It is very dangerous for an American to use US made LLMs. China doesn't have boots on American ground unlike NSA.
@OZFrance
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
when will Lex come to China?
@jekster
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
That dude suggested the ChatGPT app when "disconnecting" to read a book. This feels like ad placement more than a podcast.
@stt.9433
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
@lexfridman just fyi there is a mistake in the Recent AI Models diagram at 2:38, Mistral Small 3.2 is not a Google model but a MIstral AI, minor mistake but my OCD brain urged me to write this commment.
@EddieMorra1953
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Just can't get enough of that word, Bullish. 1:01:31
@Sourpusscandy
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
I wonder what these guys eat for fuel?
@EddieMorra1953
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
If you want to build an LLM from "Scratch" you must first create the Universe.
@aashutosh-yt
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Nathan and Sebastian both are great educators, and I learnt a lot from them in my ai journey.
thanks lex for this podcast ❤❤
@wmallouk
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
Thank you Lex — amazing podcast
@deanmartin1071
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
It's not possible to build from materials in earth a brain that thinks like humans. Most human brains are inadequate to survive anywhere outside the bubble that has been built by intelligent humans. Especially in America.
@evildeadbr
February 1, 2026 at 1:16 pm
These 2 guys are delusional!!! Surfing the hype…it's embarrassing…
Comments are closed.