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How a Super El Niño affects the global climate

Vox | July 31, 2026



On June 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory after temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than average for several months. Declaring an El Niño isn’t out of the ordinary, as they happen in cycles every two to seven years. But this one could be extraordinary.

Some are calling it a “Super” or “Godzilla” El Niño, and the NOAA predicts an 81 percent chance that it could develop to a “very strong” level, rivaling the historic and devastating El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Experts are predicting it will likely reach its peak this winter and into 2027, bringing heat, rainfall, and other potential extreme weather events.

But even with that foresight and climate models that can confidently predict what might be in store, we still face a test of what could potentially be the strongest El Niño ever recorded and the wild weather that comes with it. We spoke with atmospheric scientists and meteorologists to find out how a Super El Niño forms, why it changes global climate, and what we should expect in the coming months.

Read more about El Niño:

The latest from NOAA about this El Niño: https://www.noaa.gov/topic-tags/el-nino-la-nina-enso

Vox podcast The Gray Area covers the possibility of a “Godzilla El Niño”: https://www.vox.com/podcasts/495653/el-nino-climate-change-global-warming-david-wallace-wells

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
World Meteorological Organization’s seasonal outlook for El Niño heat and rainfall: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather

The Guardian’s coverage of California’s shark surge: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/14/california-sharks-el-nino

New York Times article about powerful El Niños of the past: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/climate/el-nino-history-famine.html

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Written by Vox

Comments

This post currently has 31 comments.

  2. @Bearclaw2026

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    Stop launching rockets to space, using rockets for war, warhead testing, over fishing, over shipping, pouring the air, water, soil. We are pigs…depleting all natural resources. Electri vehicles need man to pillage earth of minerals. Greed is our downfall

  9. @carlpatrickragas2159

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    Man, we are already experiencing a glimpse of how strong these typhoons are. We've experienced lately 3 hrs raining but the volume is torrentisl and immense. That's only monsoon rains or tropical depression (underformed typhoon).

    How much more if this raining would last 1-3 days which is usual for a typhoon?

  10. @etegration

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    It’s not we don’t care. It’s daily hearing heaviest rain for the last 50 years. Record snowfall since record started in 1948. Worst flood ever in 100 years. We get tired. We blame climate change and there’s nothing we can meaningfully do.

  13. @sam.ramphall

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    Already a 2 week string of constant rainstorms in Chile. Don't get me wrong, we desperately need the water, but at some point it will overwhelm all emergency responses. Then it will end, and all that has happened will be forgotten, and we will make the same mistakes all over again. And we won't be prepared for the next El Niño, which will be much worse if climate change continues its trend.

  18. @halverdha1

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    Strange? You mean sharks feeding where they feed normally in the shallows where they can kinda can find beat fish which they eat in their own natural environment. Nothing strange about that that’s where they live. It’s a shark.

  19. @Gribbo9999

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    Its somewhat confusing, if you don’t live in the northern hemisphere, when commentators keep mentioning places in both hemispheres in conjunction with "winter" and "summer". Without specifying the hemisphere they mean. Better to use the months.

  22. @Razear

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    I remember when they called it "global warming," and then somehow or another, it gradually morphed into "climate change"…

  27. @mynameisjeeeyf

    July 31, 2026 at 8:07 am

    What does El Nino have to do with a shark being near kids in the ocean? Great Whites, BTW, absolutely in their normal range around LA and north. Absolute fear mongering slop.

Comments are closed.

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