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Coming Great Depression? – How To Survive & Thrive The Great Reset | Arthur Hayes

Tom Bilyeu | October 4, 2025



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Has a World War III like event already been set in motion? You’re likely already on alert and looking closely at money-printing, rising inflation, the potential banking crisis, the massive amount of debts at the country and consumer levels.

Today’s episode is an opportunity to gather knowledge and understanding about what’s happening right now so that you can devise the best strategy to survive financial collapse. Arthur Hayes, a brilliant macro-investor and entrepreneur is joining me to expose the signs of an impending financial crisis that will be detrimental for people caught off guard.

We’re going to explore why political instability is a greater concern, what it’s the biggest predictor of, and why energy is the anchor no one is talking about, and exactly what you’ll need to know that is leading to even greater inflation.

Meet Arthur Hayes, the unflinching co-founder of BitMEX and a pivotal figure in the crypto world, known for his controversial yet insightful perspectives. You’re going to need to lean into this episode as this financial maverick tackles the daunting challenges of inflation, massive debt, and looming banking crises with candor and astute acumen.

Stay tuned and discover the big disturbance Arthur sees on the horizon over the next 3 to 6 months, and why he says that Japan is the more successful version of China.

Show Notes:
(00:03:44) Rich countries’ population decline and looming market disturbances.
(00:13:46) Intellectual disdain for communism and US’s Eurasian resource goals.
(00:26:24) Our missed nuclear chance in an oil-dependent world.
(00:31:51) Indonesia’s nickel strategy and global trade inequalities.
(00:46:20) The risks of selling low-interest bonds prematurely.
(00:55:39) Real estate lending’s decline and bank stability concerns.
(01:05:53) Global debt’s impact on long-term bond choices.
(01:19:57) Profiting from low-risk investments in any market.
(01:22:26) Navigating volatile assets with short-term cash safety.
(01:39:24) Predicting a stable economy vs. potential extremes.
(01:46:20) Long-term AI and crypto investments aiming for 2025 liquidity.
(01:56:32) US’s self-sufficiency vs. global dollar protection.
(02:13:28) Crypto’s resilience amidst crises and fraud.
(02:24:07) Centralized influences on Bitcoin’s principles.
(02:25:36) Balancing Bitcoin’s core values with mainstream demands.
(02:37:38) Economic collapse concerns.

Arthur Hayes Quotes:
“Every time we’ve had a financial crisis over the last 80 years, […] the government rushes in and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.”

“We’ve proven over thousands of years of human history that printing money is not growth…”

“The problem is when inflation shows up, it’s when you exhaust the cheap labor, when you exhaust the cheap energy…”

About Arthur Hayes:
Arthur Hayes is the CIO of Maelstrom, a family office that invests across the crypto
ecosystem. He is also the co-founder of BitMEX – the first crypto unicorn. Prior to entering
the crypto industry, he worked as a trader in the capital markets divisions of Deutsche
Bank and Citibank. Arthur holds a Bachelors of Economics from the Wharton School of
Business. He has appeared on major business news networks including Bloomberg and
CNBC. He is active on X (@cryptohayes) and releases a monthly newsletter (Crypto
Trader Digest) read by thousands of investors globally.
Follow on Instagram | Medium | Substack | X

About Maelstrom:
Maelstrom is an investment fund focused on digital assets. It is managed by the family
office of Arthur Hayes (co-founder, BitMEX). The fund’s mandate is to build a portfolio of
infrastructure companies that will serve as the foundation of the next wave of trustless
decentralization. Website: Maelstrom.Fund
Follow on Linkedin | X | YouTube

Maelstrom
Communications Contact
pr@maelstrom.fund

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Written by Tom Bilyeu

Comments

This post currently has 49 comments.

  4. @Viaquer

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Hmm, gold is up 200+% in 10 years. Thats 20+% a year… if that is standing still then why has the S&P only gone up 10% annually?

    Then we look at krypto 😂 my guess would be like 25.000% to 30.000% in 10 years!

    We all know where the economy is heading right now seeing this numbers right? Especially sense they need to reset the system and banks are interested in 24/7 stock markets, meaning company's will be tokinazed instead of stocks or probably both through a transition period.

    I think currency will still be valid payment because a country is fragile without something tangible but krypto will be the future.

  7. @tiffsaver

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Another great interview! I would like to add just one opinion regarding your excellent guest's mention of one possible answer to our energy problems being 'aliens giving us their technology.' But his offhand comment isn't as far fetched as you think.
    I've been a UFO researcher for over 50-years. Ever since 1947 when two UFOs crashed in the New Mexico desert just outside of Roswell, the US military has been in control of actual UFO remains, including their deceased alien occupants. And this isn't the first time. We also have the crash remains of another extraterrestrial craft from Laredo, Texas in 1953, not to mention other countries that have also retrieved alien remains. So for at least 75-years we have been experimenting with and reverse engineering these same spacecrafts, meaning that we already have a radical new form of nearly limitless energy which has been covered up for all this time, reason being that if this technology was ever released it would immediately destroy the wealth and power of the global extractive industries that have been harvesting fossil fuels for nearly a century.

  11. @LIBlurr

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Funny how every manipulated Banking crisis creates inflation, which causes financial harm to the populace… But most Bankers make out like Bandits!!

  14. @michaelbaker4770

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Imo, the Elites intend to crash the world's markets through naked shorting. I think the war in Russia is intended to clear out 11 time zones from fighting age men. Congress, sec, fnra and the dtcc are all captured. Tough times are coming

  17. @JoeGoicoechea

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    I always thought sin taxes were our saviour fed legal weed taxed heavily with stalks as pulp wood and oils hemp hearts more tax on alcohol and VAT thought thru are viable by making every and any govt job created a good job bc no matter what u do the money goes back into the economy with nft etf s as those cryto like stabilizers should balance the equation somewhat love these macro topics and learned earlier to day about quantifying and tokenizing the environment like Whitney was saying about the Amazon

  19. @recyclespinning9839

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    We know our economy is based on mass production/ mass consumption/ mass pollution. We know it can't continue so we go into self-destruct mode. I guess we can't admit we have a failed economic system that pretty much destroys our habitat. Changing into a , non mass production system, which is actually pretty easy , and less work…

  22. @LalaWallace-wg9mj

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Tesla technology is our power answer!
    Pay off debt? It's fiat currency, meaning there is no value in paper money unless Governments agree. If everyone is allegedly on US dollars standard and we no longer have Gold to back FIAT! Now WW3 because of what JFK, Lincoln, and many other intelligent leaders warned! History repeating itself! Wake up, live love, be nice while we shift into something more sensible like the Natives before 1800's

  23. @sarahbrewer53

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    I have physical gold, own all my homes straight out, have 0 debt. I keep about 50k in the markets and 100k in the bank. Just for bills. Then I have 200k in different currencies. Oh and 5 Bitcoin. I own my own business. It's cash. As soon as I make money I put it back into products. I have more faith in stuff than the dollar.

  24. @rumpelstiltskin9878

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Young man, you are spot on. The only thing I believe that will short-circuit you analysis is immigration. Immigration is the one thing that would slow Americas decline. But because racist white men view minorities as a threat to their wealth, then the collapse will happen much sooner. Imagine you ship away 13,700,000 immigrants that account for $20,000 in annual spending. By eliminating them in a country that no longer is having babies, you just wiped out $275,000,000,000 in annual revenue. And it gets worse; those guys were your minimum wage working class. Now you are stuck with a guy holding an associates degree asking him to work at McDonald's. Now the cost of a burger triples due inflation driven by higher labor cost, now stores like MCDONALD'S, Dollar Store, Walmart, Target, Publix, etc will be forced to close down. Now you will have millions of unemployed people spilling into the streets and crime soars to new highs. But wait, it gets better, Trump cuts, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, and other federal jobs, Now there's no one to register unemployment filings because everyone was fired. Dam! Now prostitution, drugs,and more gang violence runs wild in the streets. And it's all because racist white men refuse to see others as their equals. Dam the collapse of a country on the account of ignorance is a heavy price to pay. No wonder America isn't mentioned in the Revelation. Why? Because it collapsed

  28. @percygoals

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.

  34. @13jasonkm

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    My wife filed for divorce. My lease is up at my town house in June. I’m going to be putting my stuff in storage and be living in my car trying to stay on top of my future coming child support. My career is being hit real hard. I’m an auto body technician. I’m terrified. It’s like the perfect storm and I’m caught in the middle with no family. Im going to take care of my kids the best I can but if I lose my license there goes my career and that’s like a death sentence for me. I’m 44 what else am I going to do?

  36. @isartoraplatz

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Tales’ from the Crypt-o
    He doesn’t know that the mysterious Babylon the great has fallen..😂🗽
    We have less than 4 years…
    They believe 2030 will be
    The turnaround let’s see what 2030 means ?
    👁️ witness…
    I see red….

  40. @mwitters1

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Then tell me WHY republicans are raising the debt limit by 4 trillion so we can give the richest men who have ever lived a tax cut!?!?! If we instead TAXED them on their ridiculous amounts of assets the prices of assets would fall including housing, the pendulum would swing back towards labor and people would start to WANT to have kids when they can live a good life! Wealth inequality is WHY we are where we are! We HAVE to tax this wealth hoarding!

  44. @ShinkuNakamoto

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    The dollar is going to 0 just like ALL other currencies. The value of anything depends on what faith we put in it.

    The dollar is losing faith every day. Bitcoin is gaining faith and for many good reasons.

  47. @cryptobynbot337

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    russian stooge – russia fought world war 3 for everybody … he is no American – so many countries fought even Australians from the corner if the world participated so no Russia did not just fought for everybody.

    And this only shows that y’all just want America to fall .. it will fall only when Americans start to fall for scam and which they are … trojan horse is already inside the American empire and destroying from within

  49. @AndrewH-ug5xk

    October 4, 2025 at 9:51 am

    Treasury bonds are not on a trajectory to become insolvent, and they will not directly cause smaller banks to fail. This premise is incorrect. However, there are some related issues affecting banks due to recent interest rate changes:
    Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Bank Portfolios
    Rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses in banks’ securities portfolios, particularly those holding long-term Treasury bonds. As of March 2025, these unrealized losses exceed $550 billion, or about 30% of regulatory capital. This situation affects banks in several ways:
    1. Reduced Asset Values: The market value of banks’ securities portfolios has declined, pushing some banks closer to technical insolvency.
    2. Liquidity Risks: Lower securities prices reduce the amount of cash banks can receive when selling securities or offering them as collateral.
    3. Funding Costs: As asset prices fall and bank risk increases, funding costs are likely to rise.
    Implications for Smaller Banks
    While Treasury bonds themselves remain solvent and backed by the U.S. government, smaller banks may face challenges:
    1. Limited Access to Liquidity: Smaller community and non-public banks may have limited access to alternative liquidity sources.
    2. Funding Covenants: These banks may be affected by funding covenants tied to their asset values.
    3. Potential for Realized Losses: If banks need to sell securities at a loss to generate income, unrealized losses become realized losses, potentially eroding capital buffers.
    It’s important to note that while these challenges exist, they do not necessarily mean smaller banks will fail. The Federal Reserve has implemented measures like the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to provide liquidity support to banks facing these issues.

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