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Julia Galef: The Sunk Costs Fallacy | Big Think

Big Think | February 18, 2026



Julia Galef: The Sunk Costs Fallacy
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The sunk cost fallacy means making a choice not based on what outcome you think is going to be the best going forward but instead based on a desire not to see your past investment go to waste.
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JULIA GALEF:

Julia Galef is a New York-based writer and public speaker specializing in science, rationality, and design. She serves on the board of directors of the New York City Skeptics, co-hosts their official podcast, Rationally Speaking, and co-writes the blog Rationally Speaking along with philosopher of science Massimo Pigliucci. She has moderated panel discussions at The Amazing Meeting and the Northeast Conference on Science and Skepticism, and gives frequent public lectures to organizations including the Center for Inquiry and the Secular Student Alliance. Julia received her B.A. in statistics from Columbia in 2005.
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TRANSCRIPT:

So I want to introduce you to a concept known as the sunk cost fallacy. Imagine that you’re going to the store and you’re halfway there when you realize, “Oh wait, the store is actually closed today.” But you figure, “Well, I’ve already come ten blocks. I might as well just go all the way to the store, you know, so that my ten blocks of walking won’t have been wasted. Well, this is a transparently silly way to reason and I doubt that any of us would actually go all the way to a store that we knew was closed just because we’d already gone ten blocks.

But this pattern of thinking is actually surprisingly common in scenarios that are a little bit less obvious than the store example. So, say you’re in a career and it’s becoming more and more clear to you that this isn’t actually a fulfilling career for you. You’d probably be happier somewhere else. But you figure I’ll just stick with it because I don’t want my past ten years of effort and time and money to have been wasted. So the time and money and effort and whatever else you’ve already spent is what we call the sunk cost. It’s gone no matter what you do going forward. And now you’re just trying to decide given that I’ve already spent that money or time or whatever, what choice is going to produce the best outcome for my future.

And the sunk cost fallacy then means making a choice not based on what outcome you think is going to be the best going forward but instead based on a desire not to see your past investment go to waste.

Once you start paying attention to the sunk cost fallacy you’ll probably notice at least a few things that you would like to be doing differently. And maybe those will be small scale things like, in my case, I now am much more willing to just abandon a book if a hundred pages in I conclude that I’m not enjoying it and I’m, you know, not getting any value out of it rather than trudging through the remaining 200-300 pages of the book just because I don’t want, you know, my past investment of a hundred pages, the time that I spent reading those hundred pages to go to waste.

And you might notice some large things, too. For example, I was in a Ph.D. program and started realizing, “Gee, this really isn’t the field for me.” And you know, it’s a shame that I have spent the last several years preparing for and working in this Ph.D. program but I genuinely predict going forward that I’d be happier if I switched to another field. And sometimes it really does take time to fully acknowledge to yourself that you don’t have any good reason to stick with the job or Ph.D. or project that you’ve been working on so long because sunk costs are painful. But at least having the sunk cost fallacy on your radar means that you have the opportunity at least to push past that and make the choice that instead will lead to the better outcomes for your future.

Produced/Directed by Jonathan Fowler and Dillon Fitton

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Comments

This post currently has 47 comments.

  7. @beezee7691

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    ha adding to that point some of the value we get 'after-death' (if we don't survive to journey) when god reclaims your life and delivers the remainder he owes you

  8. @beezee7691

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    my theory is that money or industry occurs at a very high level so yea if you spent your money on a real good that it is worth that money; also you're cool and i appreciate you, Julia; from a practical sense i feel if you can survive the long tail until then so your business can actually make it off the ground can take up to 5 years to build up a business

  11. @Paul_Wetor

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    The book "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away" has this story (summarized by someone else): Guides leading groups of people to summit Mount Everest know there is a turn-around time of 1pm; no matter how close you are to the summit, you must turn around by 1pm to descend safely to base camp. In 1996 three men, 300 feet from the summit, “obeyed” that “rule” and lived to climb another day. One of the most experienced and well-respected guides in the world, Rob Hall made it to the summit by 2pm but waited for a straggling client to arrive. They both perished on the descent. The two men who died were seen as somewhat valiant for not giving up; the three who lived by being cautious became largely invisible to the public. Not heroes, but quitters.

  15. @CaliberTX

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    I was always considered a quitter. I got my degree and while working on my masters, I realized it wasn’t for me. I am now owner of a construction business and been happily married for 15 years

  17. @AnimatedNomi

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    I'm currently stuck in a sunk cost fallacy:
    I've been together with my boyfriend whom I told since day one that I want to marry and not have a fling. I've spent 5 years in this relationship and it seems to be where we started. He's struggling to find a job. I've broken down multiple times about not being pregnant. I'm now 35.
    Do I give up on these 5 years hoping he gets this job and we live together and have kids? Or do I start over again at 35 knowing that my fertility is in decline and a man won't want a old woman like me?

  19. @L6FT

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    Good things take good time. It gets worse before it gets better. And then knowing when to quit. Your stomach will usually know the answer.

  27. @Uncle-Ruckus-

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    This was me with an ex of mine. There were red flags even at the beginning and I let them slide for a literal decade before I finally came to my senses

    It's weird to go from loving someone with every fiber of your being to wishing you never knew they existed.

  31. @theultimatereductionist7592

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    What qualifies THIS entertainer (Julia Galef) to decide what is "rational" or "intelligent" or not? Sorry, but being an entertainer and being given free media platform does NOT qualify her as intelligent or rational. Also, show us how to get governments to overcome sunk cost fallacies. Then people will listen to you & take you seriously. Until then, no.

  34. @theultimatereductionist7592

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    Those who push this stupid idiotic "failure is necessary & important" ideology COMPLETELY CONTRADICT

    those who warn against the Sunk Cost Fallacy. So, either the Sunk Cost Fallacy is NOT a fallacy and failure is necessary and important. Or, failure is evil bullshit that we should avoid at all cost. It is impossible to both preach that Sunk Cost is a fallacy AND to preach the value/virtues of failing.

  37. @Sesbian-Lex-Gamer

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    In gaming also you can relate this , but more effectively Im watching these videos after binging " monetization tactics " and how Pay 2 win games are doing stuff and some other psychological things.

    This topic applies everywhere. I watch the 1 minute video so I'm gonna watch the rest 1 minute too, Imagine if I was watching a random maths video and I hated it , " I'd still watch it because It's just 5 more minutes , I've already come so far " mentality.

  40. @davidsarup3245

    February 18, 2026 at 8:27 am

    Interesting speech, but i do not think you get more happiness if you keep shifting direction in your life. Happiness is at least for me not about what i do but how i choose to look at it. If i kept changing direction i would think i would end with nothing i was good at. It is a good thought but i do not think it will work in real life.

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