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The ‘duck curve’ is solar energy’s greatest challenge

Vox | April 15, 2026



Renewables require change in the energy supply chain.

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Electricity is incredibly difficult to store, so grid operators have to generate it at the exact moment it is demanded. In order to do this, they create incredibly accurate models of the total electric loads, that is how much energy will be consumed on a given day. But as utilities started to produce more energy from renewable sources like solar, the models started to shift as well.

California researchers discovered a peculiarity in their state’s electric load curves, that started to look more and more like a duck. And that duck shaped chart highlights the greatest challenge to solar energy growth in the US.

Vox writer David Roberts has been covering the issue for a few years now. You can read some of his past explainers on the duck curve, and its solutions at the links below:

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/20/17128478/solar-duck-curve-nrel-researcher

https://www.vox.com/2016/2/10/10960848/solar-energy-duck-curve

https://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11376196/california-grid-expansion

https://www.vox.com/2016/2/12/10970858/flattening-duck-curve-renewable-energy

And if you would like to read some of the source material used in the video above, you can check those out here: https://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewables_fastfacts.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65023.pdf

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Comments

This post currently has 33 comments.

  1. @kshred3043

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    3:24 "The more power that can be stored, the more you can sort of let solar rip."
    No, "The more ENERGY that can be stored, the more you can sort of let solar rip. You would help that a power authority would have a better grip o the terminology.

  2. @joaopauloluz7793

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Would it be possible to alleviate this problem, in big countries like US, by connecting solar production over long distances? For instace the peak consumption of NY wouldn't be the same period of California… I know that the grid is interconnected.

  3. @philipbrown9006

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    This is quite an old video. Whilst I am not in favour of the government telling us what sort of car we can buy, the push towards EVs has led to a decrease in the price of large capacity batteries. These could be used to flatten the duck curve and even out short term fluctuations in solar output. This would be a better use for them than using them in EVs, which are beginning to prove unpopular, and would give us more reliable electricity, not less.

  4. @douglasengle2704

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    The wild AC from solar voltaic generated electricity is impossible to be power grid quality and must be conditioned typically by natural gas turbines running much of the time at a no electric power output service idle consuming 70% of the fuel they use at full throttle where they'd be producing 100% of the electric power. One cloud passing over a solar farm will require instant make up from the natural gas turbines. There are no news stories on how much natural gas solar voltaic panels are saving because it is small.

  5. @barry8215

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    The end consumer could adapt more. When the price triples at 9 pm. People and businesses would use less, saving money by using ice made during high generation times for cooling. Many people turn the air conditioning off during the day to save money but spend more trying to catch up at peak cost times.

  6. @Aqq-q1l

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    The electricity bill is getting higher and higher, that's why the drops in demand occurred. Not that I don't want my AC on all day, even if I have one.

  7. @Krunch2020

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Is it better to charge an EV at noon or overnight? I contend that the baseload source matters the most in this decision. If it’s nuclear and there is excess production overnight then the answer is obvious. If fossil fuels are burned for nighttime power production then the answer is obvious. How can I find out my utility’s nighttime source?

  8. @janbastian1232

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Thats why electric cars get important: They can load during midday on the parking lot or can step in with their batteries in times of need. Another possibility is to use solar energy during midday to produce hydrogen. You might step up energy-consuming processes during midday. The energy market when functioning helps to step up innovations and clever decisions. In Europe solar plants are planned with batteries very often because you can sell electricity more expensive later in the day. — There are many ways.

  9. @passagetonow1229

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    The Duck Curve issue is a SCAM!

    1. Use a dishwasher and clothes dryer with a timer or smart-home feature so you can power them during the day when you are away from home but have plenty of solar power.

    2. Use a tank water heater and heat your water when the sun is up. That will provide more than enough hot water during peak energy use after sunset. Use a timer to turn on the water heater at night after peak hours to use grid power of needed.

    3. Run your hardwired LED lights and USB outlets on a battery and charge the battery when the sun is up. This doesn't need to be a big battery!!

    4. Over condition your home while the sun is up by 6 to 8 degrees. Depending on your insulation, that should get you through most or all of peak energy use after sunset. Then program your thermostat back to the desired temperature after peak hours.

    THINK!

  10. @ikanderson

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    By making electricity prices dynamic with generation, this incentivizes storage methods. Buy electricity when its cheap, store in a battery, sell back to the grid when its expensive and make a profit, while also stabalizing the grid. This is technology agnostic as well. Any storage method can be turned into profit.

  11. @chrishadjipetris6059

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    In Cyprus, we have a similar problem, due to high PV production in spring and low load (our weather conditions are similar to California's). That's why, my final year project aims to find a way, so that people can charge their EV at work and increase the consumption during the day, so that the EV consum the wasted PV production

  12. @dankspain

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Adequate market pricing signals (hourly retail prices for electricity) and stable market framework conditions. The developers will install the most efficient storage and generation technologies. Problem solved.

  13. @kryzethx

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Are there really no solutions to this problem? I mean, Factorio solved this problem ages ago; you just add some accumulators for every few solar panels you place, so they can store the energy during the day, and output it during the nights. Not sure if storing that much power in an electrical/chemical battery would be the most efficient, but surely there must be a way to store at least some of that energy, so that we're not just 'wasting' it by turning the solar panels off.

  14. @idontagree9658

    April 15, 2026 at 10:00 am

    Is there a reason the over generation of the solar can't be implemented (or stored) as hydrogen manufacturing? What about pumping water uphill to be stored on a inclined plane? What about applying the over generation electricity to already reclaimed waste heat, raising temperatures of the recollection (as waste heat too weak to produce work) and simply apply combination mediation to a recycling as steam turbine power?
    Send me the power, I got mad scientist designs. (;

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