Texas Senate Race SHIFTS as Talarico Opens 5-Point Lead
A new Texas Senate poll shows James Talarico opening a five-point lead over Ken Paxton, adding to the evidence that this race may be shifting toward true battleground territory. With control of the Senate potentially at stake in the 2026 midterm elections, Texas could provide Democrats with an additional—and unexpected—path to a majority.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,048 likely voters shows Talarico at 45%, Paxton at 40%, and 14% undecided, with a reported margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points. The result does not guarantee that Talarico is ahead statewide, but it continues a recent polling trend in which he has been tied with or leading Paxton.
In this video, we examine the full poll—including the breakdown among Republicans, Democrats, independents, racial groups, and voters with and without college degrees. We also look at why Talarico’s advantage among independents could become one of the most important warning signs for Paxton.
Affordability remains the top issue identified by Texas voters, followed by healthcare costs, Social Security, Medicare, and economic growth. How the candidates address those concerns may ultimately determine whether Texas remains Republican-leaning or becomes one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races.
Do you believe Texas should now be considered a toss-up, or does Ken Paxton still hold the underlying advantage?
Subscribe to The TEC Show for polling analysis, election forecasts, and data-driven coverage of the 2026 midterm elections.
**Data Driven, Not Party Driven.**
0:00 – New Polling: Talarico Leads Paxton
0:37 – Polling Average and Trend Analysis
1:35 – Prediction Market Shifting Momentum
2:27 – Massive Fundraising Gap Revealed
2:54 – Demographic Breakdown: Who’s Winning Independents?
5:04 – Top Issues for Texas Voters in 2026
6:38 – The National Senate Map: Texas as a Key Pathway
7:33 – Potential Democrat Pickups in Other States
8:45 – Conclusion: Is Texas Now a Toss-up?
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@TheTECShow
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Should the Texas Senate race now be considered a toss-up, or does Ken Paxton still hold the advantage? Explain what the latest polling tells you.
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@rommelsierra8803
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Fake news
@TXSlater
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Told y'all not to sleep on our guy 🤠
@jimmyburdan14
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
I got to sit and talk to Mr. Talarico at the adult daycare I go and he really stopped and listened to me. Now not to down grade myself be he went to a center of disabled people and spoke and then sit down with me by myself and listen. Not too many so call people of power are welling to do something like that. He walks the walk, not just talks the talk. God Bless
@momogi8519
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Do NOT trust the polls. We were burnt, real bad with Hillary Clinton & Kamala, all polls said they'd win, and both candidates had Loads of money. Joe Biden won mainly because of COVID. DO NOT TRUST THE POLLS nor these racists, lying voters. If they could they'd vote for Trump 10 times more. *We live in a cult-like, entertainment country, and these voters loves chaos, drama & entertainment…which Trump has in Spades*.
@gugurupurasudaikirai7620
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
If those Latino numbers are true Paxton is screwed
@momogi8519
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Oh MY GOD. There are so many voters choosing SA and criminal candidates.. SO SO Shameful
@davidpena3261
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
He needs a double digit lead to really have a chance against "wife cheating"Paxton.
@wayneprice6731
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
I still stand by my prediction of almost eight months ago: Dems will retake the House 230—205 and Dems will retake the Senate 54—46, netting SEVEN seats along the way. I expect "his" RCP approval rating to fall to 33%, and the generic ballot will begin showing Dems consistently up 9% no later than mid-September. 😊
@Dujuan_0
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
I won't get too excited I remember what happened to Beto O'Rourke.
@alutious
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Turmp is on the ballot. Jd knows he cant win so he will be sprinting on grift after he grants a pardon.
@-Ready-Player-One-
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
It doesn't matter if Talerico gets 100% of the votes. Trump is already doing everything in his power to cheat so it won't be surprising if Talerico wins, he will somehow try to invalidate it and the Republican governor will go along with it.
@matthewnewland9282
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
It looks like Texas is a toss up now. 😊
@FloydBrown-i5i
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Ossoff + Talarico = 2028💯%
@equalizer1946
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Bullshit poll
@FaerieDragonZook
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Neither side can afford to take Texas for granted, and that is going to lead to a very expensive race.
@A.J.Ballman
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
And alligators fly.
@Goldenhour24
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Democrats are energized more than republicans. I think Texas is going to flip to blue 💙
@aaroncote6750
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
TEC, I think it depends though who the “undecided” are…they may wait until the polls, but I’m wondering if it’s Republicans who are on the fence whether to vote for Talerico or stick with Paxton just because he is an R. 🤷🏼♂️
I would think those who know they definitely are voting for Talerico aren’t on the fence, many prob are with Paxton because of his shady past; both personal and professional.
@BevoGuy
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Republicans will have to cheat to win. Let’s see what tricks they have up their sleeves. Either that, or too many black Democrat and democrat leaning independent Texans will decide to sit this one out or refuse to vote for Talarico. If Republicans don’t cheat and the black turnout stays historically normal for Texas democrats, then Talarico should comfortably edge out Paxton and end up with 51% to 53% of the majority vote. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if Talarico ended up with up to 55% of the majority vote especially if he can really win over the hesitant black vote for him.
@randythedford5386
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
You need to talk more about the Independent Senate candidates. I think they will win 2 of the 3 three senate race.
@youareawesomethankyouforge8803
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
I am not getting my hopes up for ANY of it. Look at what happened when Beto ran against ding dong Ted Cruz. We lost. I don't believe ANY of it until election day. It's so unfair to get people's hopes up just to have them torn down. I'll believe on election day. That's when any of us should!
@therealDac10012
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Never mind. RWers don't do polls. Remember when Hillary was a sure thing? Ask Beto O'Rourke about a Dem's chance of winning in TX…twice.
@nmonster
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
But if Fetterman goes R then it makes it harder for Dems to get the majority.
@jaye8872
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
This is going to be the year Texas turns blue!
@MadmaxMusic93
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
Sheeeeeesh 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
@bubbaluv6487
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
crook or pastor and still it is close, incredible country
@Paul-o1z6c
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
F MAGA. They're idiots. Bury them in November. 54 Ds is the Senate, 250 Ds in the House
@LadyBlackstar
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
🙌🏼🤠 WOOT !!! 🙌🏿🙌🏽
Are we lovin' this one or what, y'all?
🌊 🌊 🎉 🌊 🌊
@paulbarden1895
July 29, 2026 at 4:38 am
What is wrong with you people 😮
Comments are closed.