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Texas PERFECT STORM Hits Republicans as Democrats SURGE in New Polls

The TEC Show | September 20, 2026



Texas PERFECT STORM Hits Republicans as Democrats SURGE in New Polls. New polling from Texas shows Democrat James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in the Senate race, while Gina Hinojosa is making the governor’s contest against Greg Abbott increasingly competitive.

In this video, we examine why these two races could become major warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections. One poll places Hinojosa ahead of Abbott by four points, while another gives Abbott a narrow lead within the margin of error. Meanwhile, Talarico leads Paxton in both polls discussed—even as many voters remain undecided.

We also break down the shifting independent vote, the role of Latino voters, economic concerns, and controversial issues involving data centers and Flock cameras. If Democrats are genuinely competitive in Texas, it could have major implications for the battle over Senate control and provide clues about the broader national political environment.

Are these Texas polls revealing a lasting political shift, or will Republicans regain their advantage before Election Day? Share your analysis in the comments.

Subscribe to The TEC Show for polling analysis, election forecasts, and data-driven coverage of the 2026 midterms.

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00:00 – Introduction & Texas Stakes
00:40 – New Polls: Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott
02:00 – Momentum Shift & Incumbent Struggles
03:01 – Polling Breakdown: Age Demographics & Independents
04:31 – How Independent Voters are Impacting the Race
06:22 – Key Issues: Economy, Data Centers & Flock Cameras
08:37 – Texas Senate Race: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
09:34 – National Impact & Final Thoughts
11:24 – Conclusion

#2026Midterms #PoliticalAnalysis #Election2026

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Written by The TEC Show

Comments

This post currently has 36 comments.

  8. @Howdydoody-pw2ss

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    Don’t trust polls! Get out in mass! Vote once and for an end to this chaos in this country! No Republican should win an election on Nov 3rd! These crazies GOP is complicit with letting tRump get away with anything! Make the turnout so large that there is no shred of doubt of rigging shit! Winning back congress by the dems is the first step in impeaching tRump & Hegsweth. And they know it! Nov 3rd is monumental!

  11. @4etuber8

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    The polling is irrelevant if the people can't vote. Recently they pulled the same BS in Tarrant County by cut polling sites and it's the same BS they pulled in 2022 in Harris County (Houston) where 2.2 million were registered Democrats but only 600K voted because they closed or moved polling sites. Get the word out, mail-in ballots early, and vote early!

  17. @ericmenard3439

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    What i find discordant about the data center debate, is the fact that rural folks, only care about their specific personal quality of life. Not that the cell phones and tvs are spying live on us! (Even when the screen is "off")

    The issue for Them is "noise in my backyard" the proverbial "Nimby" old person pooping their pants arguments.
    BUT the real big issue should be.. What The actual hell, do they need to process with billions of computers?
    It's not composing business reports, creating nude videos of someone's neighbors! NO they need so much power to process every single cell phone in the worlds' cameras & microphone live.
    Why we sitting on the pot, the microphone is recording the beans we had for breakfast, the camera is recording the pants around our ankles while we doom scroll!
    When we charge our phone before bed, that special album we put on for romance is being AI inferenced, so is the small talk, the sweet words we whisper.

  20. @ericmenard3439

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    Bizarre, the news stations' graphics deceptively showed completely different numbers than what the story claimed, showed the lead for crabby Abbott instead Hinojosa's actual lead?
    Desperately shoveling the horse shit, hoping the inducement continues lining the executive pockets.
    Why can news stations keep their broadcast license despite obviously carrying water for a certain financial political party?

  22. @seymourmajor4520

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    The short answer to your question is that Talerico has probably got all of the floating voters that are possible to attract. I do not believe he will lose them. I have watched some of Talerico's speeches and interviews. I am very impressed. He has two significant, inextricably linked pillars of uniqueness. Both pillars complement each other and reinforce his political credibility.
    One is his Christian values. If a politician uses "Love thy neighbor" as a political value, he/she is claiming a very high ethos. In using Jesus's teaching, such a politician needs to be sure there isn't dirt left behind that opponents could dig up and throw back in his/her face. Just imagine Ken Paxton quoting Jesus after setting up a sweet deal for a paedophile. No dirt has emerged against Talerico. If there were any, the GOP would probably have used it by now.
    The second pillar is that he has drawn attention to his record as a state-level politician, when he facilitated much legislative reform after negotiating with his political opponents when the GOP held a majority in the legislative chamber.
    Wow! If a majority of voters voted on political ethics and fitness for office alone, Talerico would slaughter Paxton at the polls.

  23. @mamiebaxter1031

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    Good morning I'm watching from Syracuse and I like the polls race and how it's doing because we need it we need get our country back the economy is struggling like really bad work in the polls for me this year it's going to be really exciting work to see each team and where we're at. An the independent voters how many have changed their votes

  24. @garaf1246

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    9/20/2026 The May 2022 Uvalde, Texas massacre and the incompetent response still haunts me. Abbott knew of the massacre yet he went to a fundraising for re-election that day. Yet he won Uvalde by 60% of the vote. Hispanics rewarded that POS with four more years. Uvalde was the micro-test for Hispanics in Texas. I hope for change, but Uvalde still haunts me.

  30. @rootshg-wi

    September 20, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    Polymarket has Abbot at 80% to win. the race So no real excitement from these polls. and the polymarket is starting to build a better reputation then the pollsters

Comments are closed.

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