Did Trump Just Lose? The War is Over, But the Real Winner is Not At All Who You Think
Thanks to Kalshi: http://kalshi.com/r/IMPACT
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The most advanced AI model ever built just got pulled by the US government over security concerns — and the real story behind why is bigger than it looks…”
The conversation focused on breaking down the latest global events and their implications—from the controversial end of the Iran war and its lopsided peace deal, to the shutdown of Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI model by the U.S. government over security concerns. The discussion explored whether the U.S. is negotiating from a place of strength or weakness, delved into the economics and politics of the recent Iran deal, and raised critical questions about America’s standing as a global power. Several points were raised, including the real-world impact of massive reparations to Iran, the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the shifting dynamics in U.S.-Israel relations, and what these changes signal for the future of U.S. foreign policy.
A key theme that emerged was the economic ripple effect of AI investment and innovation war with China, the dangers of regulatory capture in the AI space, and the precarious balance between safety and competition. The dialogue also touched on political polarization in the U.S., the rise of anti-capitalist rhetoric, wealth inequality, and new immigration policies in Sweden as a window into the future of Western democracies. Listeners are in for a timely, thoughtful analysis of how today’s decisions are shaping tomorrow’s world.
00:00 Intro
02:15 Iran Win FR this time
19:43 Israel The Warhawk
25:00 Economic angle of war
27:26 Bernie Tweet on Trillionaires
1:05:44 AI Fable
1:13:54 All In Crew Breaks Down Regulatory Capture
1:24:54 Sweden Stops Migrants
1:35:51 Knicks Win (woot woot) into Mamdani
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@unkleskunky
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Trifflin Dillema, you should discuss on the show and then lets build a big ole' mental map.
@mad3hatter8
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
1:46:11 the moment Tom realizes he is in libtard Hell
@Jakethebeard
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Zaria mains i swear to god
@budc.8172
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
America successfully subjugated Iran by forcing them into reconstruction debt using the USD. This is the classic moved used by both the USA and China to spread influence worldwide. This massively hinders BRICKs and the belt and road initiative. This is a MASSIVE win for Trump.
@chooseanamenow
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Great episode! Love seeing Toms passion!!!
@tel-AI-vision
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Drew keep your job. Im scared for you. 😅
@mikaellavoie6811
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I agree with marushia. I dont know ANY people around me that can focus on a video more then 15 min anymore.
@intelligent_politics
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Tom, americas resource companies are part of the government. I wonder how long it takes for the US population to realise they don't live in a democracy.
@Imwrongurright
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
For god sake cut the 5 min intro!!!
@intelligent_politics
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
The US didn't rebuild Japan nor Germany. This is US propaganda, these were super powers in their own right. That is how they posed a threat in the first place.
@christimmcadams
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I loooove you Tom but dang the number of F bombs in this episode gave me anxiety. With that said, thank you for keeping all of us up to date in an entertaining manner.
@Chikenburg77
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Tom, I love your commentary, but I think one thing you miss because you’re so logical is you discount the value of optimism. It has value. No matter which way you look at Iran it will be a net positive.
I also think your explanation of creating value is too complicated for someone who’s never actually created value and only been an employee.
Very simply if someone wants to answer to that question. All they need to go do is try to create something that someone is willing to give up there hard earned money in exchange for.
I think the problem with the US is we’ve indoctrinated people into becoming employees. You’re taught to go to school get a good education to get a good job. We are taught to rely on someone’s ability to create a business to create employment for us to survive. It’s the ultimate trap.
When you go visit other countries that are “Third World“ they are taught to survive. Which means they need to create value in exchange for money.
So especially for socialist who struggle with the idea of creating value like Bernie Sanders. Like Drew. Like Ryan. Who both depend on you. For survival. They and any others who don’t understand the idea of creating value should go try and create their own value in the marketplace. It would help build a solid foundation for this discussion.
@PepeChuy-x1n
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Tom, I’m really glad that you’re realizing, finally, that you are not to waste one more minute in the left/socialist/communism nonsense that those two bring to the table.
@officialmentallydope
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
After studying the trenches at Amazon. That corporation has done so much to show appreciation to the associates. I have seen it still not be good enough to stop a large amount of the employees wasting company time, not care about customers packages, and only hate the man that gave them a job. People just arent in the right mindset even though they chose to work for a company. Its hard to see good entrepreneurs get hated on and robbed by employees. I hate working with those type of individuals but sadly that population of people is growing.
@anthonyamann2430
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I think I can give an example about the balancing the budget argument. You can balance your monthly budget, the bills you have to pay out, by borrowing from a credit card. In this you are getting enough funds to pay your bills but increasing your debt.. Or, as Tom is pointing out, you can balance your budget by having less monthly bills, basically living within your means. You could also make more income via selling some of your stuff, working more hours or getting a pay increase from your job. The only one that is truly balancing budget so that you won't have an even bigger problem next month, is the 2nd options.
@johnpike8010
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
53:00 Tom, i am convinced that there are no realistic low suffering options left for USA. The core problem is that US Democracy does not offer a meaningful choice to Americans. So because all (both) of your options will never voluntarilly balance the budget, the economic situation will only ever get worse. Therefore, in order to balance the budget, you first need constitutional reform to allow something like preferential voting. But because that will disempower the moneyed elites who can and do buy any election they want, you most likely need a revolution to make this happen. I hope and pray that it can be bloodless, but i just do not see how that could happen. Sorry, but that is where your country is at. Best of luck.
@thestephaniepaxton
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Tom, you are awesome! Love that you hold your ground!
@officialmentallydope
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
It annoys me when people are mad about other people being wealthy.. so if you hate wealthy people. Dont have any more children. Please. And thank you
@PatrickDineenExplores
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I see a lot of drew hate in the comments. I love the fact that there are differing opinions – it’s actually my favorite thing about the show. Please never get rid of Drew!
@officialmentallydope
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
48:36 I feel anyone that worries about someone else's financial status, is part of the problem. People spend more time talking bad about good wealthy entrepreneurs than talking about the reason they themselves arent ahead. GO ELON! Get richer brother. I was once told, when you are the topic, you are at the top. Congratulations to that man. Yee 💪🏾 🫡 #mars
@robhegel2568
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
LOSE that show intro. Long, ponderous, boring AI slop. Consider shortening it to a concise 20-30 seconds.
@zambonifunk
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Crash out from Tom at the end there. Yikes. Even if he isn't wrong, he's really being a jerk about it
@christopherdorrin8790
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
So great, they can fund more terrorists groups and now the world will pay the to do so? Trump is a complete idiot if this is what he accomplished after all this time. Israel is not going to go along with this either.
@DreamMaker-k1m
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Great episode, loved the pushing back and forward from both sides. The end was intense.
@franciscocanale9426
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Ok here my human argument i wont use claude copy paste. Elon is able with a promise and a good track record however correct me if im wrong But the evaluation is depenps.on him out selling china in robotics reaching AGI or at least that tool is necessary to get to what he promises. The issue for me is that indont see great value in AI to help humans. However. Progress for what to where have we agreed as a civilization that we need to tile the earth with compute in order to create something that will change the human condition. it is inevitable But as you said this altered state of evaluation for AI will or seems will cause a a crash and they will be bailed out . This response is not AI generated, go look it up
@arzdiamondbacks
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
There are some real nincompoops in the chat.
@Toddlerhedgefund
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Loved the intro boys.
@franciscocanale9426
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Cause and effect fundamental assumptions ect. We are not AI and this is important just because you can articulate your argument extremely well and be wrong. Always asking to explain like were AI like with Drew is not the way a human conversation works.
@erinanddimitri
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
That ending was gold! I really appreciated how Tom pushed back. It was fun to see especially since lately it feels like Tom's been getting pushed around by the crew. However, if it takes that much to get on the same page with the people you are closest with and who know you best, that means that the general public does not understand your point either. If that's the case you need to take a look in the mirror and find ways to explain in a better way that the average person can comprehend.
@marks7321
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I’ve never seen Tom so on tilt. Hard to watch.
@VitoCalma
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Those top regime leaders in Iran helped facilitate oct7 . Trump did the world a favor by talking out some evil people. Thank you Trump
@nicoleyee3340
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
nope Tom OF does not offer VALUE, please go back to the thinking tank on that one> OF offer a transaction of exchange but not all transactions of exchange are VALUABLE. Value is when its a WIN ALL for all involved and the WIN-ALL for a transaction is transcending. money does not provide transcend it can build a bridge or a door way but money in itself is never transcending. therefore OF services always carries an energy of shame or guilt and that hinders VALUE to exist. AGAIN TOM- if we are but biology why the energy of shame and guilt? its because we are not just biology but biology is our starting or play ground to our next level and i guess too many wants to stay at the starting or on the playground never getting to the next level of why we are HUMANS…
@ziv2liv
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
I agree 100% about Elon Musk creating value, every company the man created lit up the imagination of the masses, however when we talk about value, value is something that is measurable. Revenue is one benchmark, profit is another. The problem with Elon's consolidated new SpaceX (which now include X (Twitter) XAi, and other, is not only not making money, it's losing money and the whole valuation is based on a dream, on a hope, that yes, one day it will be valuable.
@mikestil1
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
Why do you allow these dumb guys like Ryan and Drew on your show?
@MichaelJohnson-gh1pe
June 16, 2026 at 5:03 am
The issue with your statement on “Value” is that you don’t consider Speculation. Elon’s wealth is from speculation, not increased productivity or value.