How to Win with Game Theory & Defeat Smart Opponents | Kevin Zollman | Big Think
How to Win with Game Theory & Defeat Smart Opponents
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If you want to win, it’s best to think crazy like a fox. Nobody knows this better than Kevin Zollman — a nationally recognized expert in game theory and associate professor of philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University — who suggests that perhaps the best way to get ahead of your opponent is to think completely counterintuitively. This works especially well in poker, where breaking the flow (say, bluffing when you have nothing) can keep your foes from guessing your next move. A little dose of crazy goes a long way. Zollman is the co-author of The Game Theorist’s Guide to Parenting: How the Science of Strategic Thinking Can Help You Deal with the Toughest Negotiators You Know — Your Kids, with Paul Raeburn.
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KEVIN ZOLLMAN:
Kevin Zollman is an associate professor in the Department of Philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is also an associate fellow at the Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh, visiting professor at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (part of Ludwig-Maximilians Universität), and an associate editor of the journal Philosophy of Science. His research focuses on game theory, agent based modeling, and the philosophy of science. Zollman is the co-author of The Game Theorist’s Guide to Parenting: How the Science of Strategic Thinking Can Help You Deal with the Toughest Negotiators You Know–Your Kids, with Paul Raeburn.
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TRANSCRIPT:
Kevin Zollman: When one is confronted with a situation that’s truly zero sum where one party is going to win and the other party is going to lose, a situation is very complicated and sometimes difficult to analyze. Game theory spent much of its early days analyzing zero sum games and trying to figure out what’s the best strategy.
It’s a little complicated because it depends critically on how sophisticated you think the other party is.
If they’re very, very, very smart, the chances that you’re going to outthink them are not very high. In such a situation often times the best strategy is very counterintuitive, because it involves flipping a coin or rolling a dice or doing something random.
Professional poker players know this and they often times advocate in poker strategy books that one should occasionally do something completely counterintuitive in order to keep your opponents off guard. And in fact game theory has shown that this is good, solid, mathematically well-founded advice, that often times what you want to do is engage in a kind of random strategy—game theorists call this a mixed strategy—in order to make sure that your opponent can’t get the leg up on you.
The nice thing about these random strategies is that they ensure that your opponent can never outthink you. So even if you think your opponent is a little smarter than you or a little bit more sophisticated than you or has a little bit more information than you do, the fact that you’re being random to a certain extent means that they can’t outthink you.
Now how do you figure out how to be random? I’m not saying just flip a coin all the time or whatever. What game theorists have figured out is that in zero sum games the best strategy to pursue when you’re against a sophisticated opponent is to adopt the strategy which minimizes your maximum loss. This is sometimes called the mini max strategy.
So the idea is you think: what’s the worst case scenario for me? What could my opponent do that would make me worse off?
And then you figure out what’s the best strategy against that, so you’re minimizing your maximum loss.
Game theorists prove that if you use this way of thinking, minimizing your maximum loss, you ensure that no matter how sophisticated your opponent is you’ve guarded against the worst case scenario. And not only that but in zero sum games you’ve done the best you can possibly do.
That’s not true in games that aren’t zero sum, so one has to be very careful about employing this strategy, because if you’re mistaken and you’re not in a zero sum interaction you could end up ruining it for everybody. But if you’re truly in a zero sum interaction this is one of the strategies that you can use.
Now suppose that you’re dealing with an opponent who’s not sophisticated, you are smarter than they are, there it depends very much on: how smart are they? Can you outthink them? And what’s the individual interaction that you’re engaged in?
So…
For the full transcript, check out https://bigthink.com/videos/kevin-zollman-how-to-outfox-someone-whos-smarter-than-you
@bigthink
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
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@surajbandodkar1591
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Thats what Jason 1 did in Dark Matter to outthink all the other Jasons by going to prison
@zarifshoeb
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Sometimes when you don’t know how many levels deep your opponent is thinking, just use random. That’s the best strategy there. Say for example it’s a penalty shootout in a soccer game and the goalkeeper is slightly closer to one side of the goalpost. The shooter is thinking well I can shoot to the side with more space since it’d be harder for the goalkeeper to reach AND they don’t know I’ll be shooting there. Then the goalkeeper is thinking I’m intentionally standing like this so I know he’ll be shooting to the side with more open space so I’ll jump that way. Now the player is again thinking the goalkeeper might’ve already anticipated this outcome so I’ll shoot towards the other side (with less empty space). Now the goalkeeper is thinking that the player is thinking that he (the goalkeeper) already anticipated the player shooting towards the open side and so the player will now try to double cross him and shoot towards the short side. And thinking this, the goalkeeper now decided to jump towards the shorter side. You can quickly see how it becomes complicated depending on how deep your opponent is thinking. So in this case, a random strategy would be best.
@WhoEvenKnowsNow
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
This whole video could be narrowed down to “minimize your maximum loss”
@Dharqness
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
my manz wanted to make a video so bad he didn't even bother to understand the content, he just read off queue cards lol
@theSUICIDEfox
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
I've see mini-max strat all the time in video games. In some shooting games with power weapon pickups, you might be in a situation where you have a power weapon but are 100% going to die, thus giving the weapon to the enemy, but you can purposely waste the ammo of the weapon or (in some games) pocket the weapon so it won't drop. I also see this all the time in Dead By Daylight, where a survivor KNOWS they are about to get caught and instead of going down in a normal chase, they will bail and run into the corner of the map to deny the killer use of certain abilities and to force the killer to waste as much time as possible hooking them. There is even a term for it, "comp corner" because it's a strategy used by competitive players all the time.
@MrMountain707
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Thew best strategy is to cheat.
@ronniebenson6107
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
this is very true in chess
@akshaysom
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
If you cant convince them, confuse them.. just like this guy did with this video
@krishgoyal33
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Is that how politicians thinks?
@kobalt7725
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
0:56 Walter White did this to Gus, who was a more established, powerful, and potentially smarter opponent. He did the most unexpected most in the show.
@kobalt7725
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
The Turkic people applied this so well. Instead of facing and competing with the Mongols, they went to the West and created Turkey.
@elim02
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Uhm he didn’t say anything?? What is this video?
@NikoisBack
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
This gotta be the worst video I’ve ever watched. My guy explored thinking about others’ moves… CRAZY! Thanks I’m going to implement this in my daily life. A TOTAL GAME CHANGER.
My guy sat there, couldn’t even properly read the screen and cooked the nothing burger for over 3 minutes. And people actually liking this video is super concerning for our society.
Peace.
@Notsosameerr
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
I love gambling
@jcoop3660
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
If all life is a game, why bother. The winners win death just like the losers
@scfrhc9131
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Do you have a video which describes game theory interaction between two groups of unequal power such as a corrupt but intelligent government and small less powerful but potentially more invested special interest organizations?
@johnnyparker9928
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
I'm gonna try this in my next golf game.
@leslieleong5522
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
stock trading?? retail traders are call pigs! total zero sum game…
@frankdiaries
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
"To confuse your enemies, one must confuse themselves."
–probably Sun Tzu
@William_Clinton_Muguai
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
GAME THEORY: MINIMAX STRATEGY:
In zero-sum games, adopt the strategy that 'minimizes my maximum loss'.
@DiscoFang
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
Minimising your maximum loss is a solid base strategy to the long game in pretty much anything in life. It makes the opponent irrelevant.
@cybertobify
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
"I dont have enemies" I only have fools which dont knw that I am their friend 😀 When they stop trying to take advantage of others they will learn that they can achieve more …. Sooo.. everybody wins
@mohhammadscharifie5059
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
I liked the content👍👍
@Robert-3691
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
I'm amazed by the quality of this. I had the privilege of reading something similar, and it was a true revelation. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell
@shakenoises
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 am
3:25 this is the reason why Artosis loses most of the time against Protoss
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