BREAKING: State Department Issues Urgent Warning on Iran
00:00 Middle East on the Brink: Iran, the Houthis & Russia-Ukraine
24:03 The Greenland Deal & the Future of America’s Allies
1:11:41 Open Weight AI Models Are Taking Over
1:31:02 The Finland Gender Care Study
1:43:21 ICE, the Austin Shooting & Immigration
Welcome to Impact Theory. Drew is out today, so Ryan steps up to co-host duties alongside Tom Bilyeu for a live show that spans a world on the edge. The State Department has issued a rare regional warning citing fear of rapid escalation, driven by intensifying Houthi attacks, Iranian threats and the possibility of US retaliation. Tom and Ryan open on the Middle East, from the Houthi ballistic missile barrage on Riyadh and the burning fuel depot near the airport, to the rumors that Trump pulled back from further strikes at the last minute, to the soaring cost of shipping oil as the Strait of Hormuz stays contested.
From there the conversation widens into the bigger board. Ukraine unleashes its largest drone wave yet and debuts its new Flamingo cruise missile, and the crew unpacks the unsettling theory that peace in Russia and Ukraine could actually be more dangerous for Europe than the war itself. They connect the dots between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the pressure on Taiwan, and what a Senator Kennedy clip claims the classified Intel really showed about Iran’s missile buildup.
Then it’s on to Greenland, where Trump takes a victory lap over a new US, Denmark and Greenland security agreement. Is it a genuine win or just a repackaging of the 1951 deal? A Danish MP weighs in, and the discussion turns to something bigger: the soft power America is bleeding, and the hard truth that in this era the world has no allies, only interests.
The back half goes deep on the AI story nobody is pricing in. Open weight models have exploded from a rounding error to the majority of tokens generated, Chinese labs are outspending OpenAI on record days, and Tom lays out why the frontier labs are quietly appealing to the government while chipmakers and inference providers quietly win. Ryan pushes back with the open source case, and the two go a full round on it.
Finally, a landmark Finland study tracking 25 years of gender affirming care forces a hard look at the data, and an ICE shooting in Austin opens a raw, extended debate on immigration, INS versus ICE, American culture, Sharia law, Christian nationalism and what it really takes to hold a country together. As Tom puts it, base assumptions control everything, and he and Ryan look at the same world and see very different things.
Whether you are here for the geopolitics, the AI shakeup or the culture war, this one covers a world in flux from every angle.
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@TheGatorDude
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Bro really let Ryan drive himself off a cliff there at the end…..
@BrightExistence-oi9qy
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Thank you, Tom, for being a voice of logic and reason (even when I disagree with you.)
@BrightExistence-oi9qy
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Look how Ryan immediately brings COLOR into it like he's made a clever point! Then he goes on to equate Trump with white nationalism. Repeats the lie that white nationalists got Trump elected… Such blatant brainwashing. (Gen X is in serious trouble.)
@AiPhilter
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F***in' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
@JamesTruthSeeking
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
So many clowns acting like clowns hating on some dude because he happens to exist and not agree with them. Hope he keeps dude on just to keep driving you all crazy. Grow up.
@keepsitcrypto
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
You need a black conservative to balance this liberal bs out man lol IM available.
Kanye got invited nick tagged along secretly how you get that atory wrong is only on purpose this guy is dumb.
@mad3hatter8
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
A player host. F player cohosts. What are you doing Tom?
@BrightExistence-oi9qy
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
No no no, Ryan. Sanctuary cities are NOT going to reverse course and handle illegal immigration themselves without ICE. Tom covers several reasons why.
Every immigrant comes here for "the American dream", Ryan? Kudos for Tom for just destroying this. Look how Ryan just can't clearly articulate a position, avoids questions, and does not consider Sharia law a problem while white national Christianity = bad. Also, Ryan? Given your position, push to allow those just seeking a better life a LEGAL path to enter the country. Ignoring ILLEGAL immigration is just foolish.
@micahzehnder5174
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Why are you such a pussy? lol supposedly rich and all manly and yet like just endless freaking out lmao You that insecure ?
@BrightExistence-oi9qy
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Ryan thinks that TRUMP is the reason LGBT etc people started getting obsessive attention, despite the obvious reality that the far-left woke crowd was literally shoving alternative lifestyles into each and every movie/series/etc, giving preferential treatment in all levels of society to the LGBT crowd, etc? Somehow, because Trump gained popularity by pushing back, HE is the one who brought this on??
That is the opposite of logic.
@StoicAnarchy
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Data is very old
@montiz333
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Im not going to lie… Ryan gets hard to listen too…its like a he's a roll of political talking points.. and he bounces one to another. The youth are cooked. I cannot fathom that he thinks his generation is the one that will be the strong ones… I know strength when i see it…. And Oh boy…
@AlSaidiKing3
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
2:14:00 ryan u sound like u hate ur self cuz ur white is that it bro u hate the fact that whites r the majority in the world .. i actually love it tbh and from my experience and wat i see most whites r beautiful kind honest ppl they treated me very well ❤️🩹
I say this as an immigrant brownie ppl of color and i hope to meet u tom and ryan in person so i may kiss ur feet 😘😘 beautiful white man thank u for accepting me in ur country, god bless u
I respect and like drew too, hes a good example of and to the black community 2:14:00
@JonathanGraehl
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
reasonably intelligent yet COMPLETELY anti-based comfy positions that cannot possibly function what a microcosm of the decline
@crezychucky55
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Ryan is the best of the best ….
@AlSaidiKing3
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
Lets talk bout ppl of color.. most of them r corrupt theives, Muslim or not dont fukin matter jus look at the data in America n the west who commits most crime n fraud n theft
I can speak bout the majority not all only god knows all and each individual hearts, and as Douglas macreggor once said.. generalizing ppl is a very bad idea and it dont work. He also said that immigration should be no more than 5 to 10:00 % off the population otherwise you will dilute your culture add identity which is exactly what's happening to Western civilization and it's very sad and heartbreaking
@AlSaidiKing3
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
White christian nationist is bad wtf 2:11:29 … Bro i would vote for a straight white christian man all day like tom or Tucker Carlson to be president before i vote for a Muslim to be president of America, i say this as a true Muslim thank god and im happy n grateful for my religion islam, and i tell why? Because most of these Muslims leader countries r not fair and racist and play the status game, if u rich u get away wit crime and if u poor and commit crime u fuked , they play favoritism.. again most of them not all of them
@mdsyr90
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
2:12:07 many people of color voted for Trump. Trump didn’t win because he’s the best. He won because he was running against the absolute worst.
@mdsyr90
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
2:11:31 Tom, the answer is obvious. Ryan finds everything foundational to the western civilization evil and bad and everything else is good and victim. That’s why.
@mdsyr90
September 22, 2026 at 4:34 am
2:11:21 you linked religion to race now. I’m speechless with the level of stupidity you brought. Islam take pride by their history of force conversion of nations – literally! Go learn some history please.