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Everyone is freaking out about this graph

AsapSCIENCE | October 20, 2024



The Earth’s population is declining. It may peak in 2064, it may peak in 2100, but either way, in the future the population is going to decline. This has many people spooked, but has others thinking it could help. We explain why this is happening, what it means for the future, and how you can prepare for the potential POPULATION COLLAPSE?

Sidenote Podcast Episode: https://youtu.be/qYKcAysyPQA

Written by: Gregory Brown
Edited by: Luka Šarlija
Animations by: Gregory Brown

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References:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35717994/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32673118/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33406378/
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/02/global-population-forecast-disagreement/621243/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/the-world-now-has-8-billion-people
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-decline-will-change-the-world-for-the-better/#:~:text=Lower%20fertility%20rates%20also%20typically,and%20helps%20reduce%20carbon%20emissions.

Written by AsapSCIENCE

Comments

This post currently has 47 comments.

  1. @AUSCarLover

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    At this rate of decline, you can’t just rely on studies about population without considering the bigger picture—like the global crisis of toxicity, birth issues, hormonal imbalances, and fertility problems. If you do, you won’t stay optimistic for long. It’s not about one side being "joyful" and the other being "fearful," like in Star Wars where fear is forbidden. Instead, by using your right brain, you’ll intuitively connect the dots and realize that humanity is slowly dying out.

    LGBTQ individuals and straight people who don’t have children will become the majority, largely due to unresolved issues—many of which stem from epigenetic factors that traditional studies barely touch on. You might think this doesn’t make sense, and that's because you’re relying on left-brain thinking, which can’t fully grasp the big picture. Society lets mental illnesses skyrocket, blames societal faults, and turns gender identity issues into a celebration of diversity. It’s no wonder we’re headed for trouble.

    You’re putting your faith in something that’s fundamentally flawed. Academia may be right in some areas, or within specific fields, but to truly understand the whole picture, you need right-brain thinking—something academia doesn’t teach. If we keep running the world based solely on academic knowledge, citing Nobel laureates and experts, nothing will change, and the world will continue on its downward spiral.

  2. @AUSCarLover

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Lefties tend to think in absolutes. They usually excel in academics and believe there’s only one solution: it has to be this or it has to be that. But truly smart people understand that every decision has its pros and cons. In real life, it’s not as black and white as it is in school. The right way to discuss this issue is to recognize that the immigration problem is real, but the only way to solve it is by allowing immigration. After that, we need to figure out what balance mechanisms should be put in place—whatever those might be. This approach makes more sense and is what we should be teaching our kids.

  3. @philmarsh7723

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Finally, sanity. We need to unwind Earth's unsustainable human population – faster than the predictions. If we ignore or worse, find a way to increase reproduction, nature will collapse the population for us – perhaps all the way to extinction or destruction of civilization. Wealthy nations can employ immigration to soften the demographic issues and then pivot to automation and AI to resolve labor shortages. But it's clear to me that we need to reduce population to something well below what we have now. Immigration aversion is just plain stupid – a recipe for disaster. The USA can crush it and lead the planet by virtue of our ability to absorb and integrate immigrants. We aren't living in the 16th century anymore and this is what all people and governments need to understand. This is a classic weakness of misguided conservatism . The world has changed and people need to adapt. That's the brutal reality. Those nations who adapt will prosper that those who don't will fail.

  4. @Etheralstew

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    "Why does it have to be such a bad thing". Well, all good points, but you did leave out a lot of the realistic expectations that younger folks tend to be a bit naive about. Economic growth drives sustainability, not the other way around. Without a growing or at least stable population (most importantly in age distribution), like you hinted at with Japan, services will fail because there aren't enough younger workers to carry the burden (work and financially through investments). Unless of course you don't mind living in the woods eating out of your garden and dying at age 30. Then by all means, continue. A declining population is in general BAD for us, but GOOD for the planet… you may not be able to have both.

  5. @Jeet8896-b4s

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Thats why Donald trump should win the election this year ,, if Trump win elon will have chance to do something for America to increase the birth rate instead of just focusing on immigration,,, I'm from Bangladesh ,, I alaways want to see trump as US president 😢❤ , if trump win I believe deeply that elon musk will bring a solution of this problem,, I love western countries, I love america 😢❤

  6. @sandylongridge2978

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Canada brings in millions of immigrants but everyone I know is getting poorer, time sure called out the lie that they bring money…. if they truly do then who’s getting it… hmmm I think I know, greedy gov is lining their pockets

  7. @yes_JD

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Deagel doom is terrifying … until you see what gets removed. Europe and the US disappear. But the numbers are -1 billion. Leaves 7 billion, 20 year later, 9 billion.
    May I remind you that doom is an old story. And so is bullshit.

  8. @HerMajesty1

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Layers of propaganda in this video. The UN is corrupt. We have no idea how many are living in the earth. The mass immigration are your replacements because when they are finally forced to work, they will work for less. We are experiencing a global democide. That birth control y'all have been taking has made you infertile. Good luck.

  9. @lamontcranston3177

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    You Tube is crawling with population denialism. There are many, many videos trying to tell us that the population will eventually decrease. If the population decreases it will be after the global crisis that kills us all. That crisis will be global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
    We know this right now. Don't let videos like this fool you. We are headed straight for Armageddon at high speed.

  10. @ntnboy85

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    i totally agree with you. i think a decreased population is a good thing, but gradually (def a collapse if it's too fast). though, we need to figure out how to manage a smaller & aging population. a smaller population is also concerning in terms of lower tax revenue and labor force, but robots are slowly on the rise & production efficiency is increasing. As for lower tax revenue, they just gotta be more efficient with the money. Also, less population means less services needed, and maybe even better services at tat. smaller classroom sizes, less traffic, no over-packed amusement parks, etc.
    things were fine a few decades ago with a 5b size population. it's better to have fewer but higher quality goods/services, especially with technological advancements that we have today. i rather people have less kids with better lives than having many kids with hard lives, for the kids.

  11. @StuJones-gn7te

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    The graph is too optimistic. It implies that we have until close to the end of this century before population decline begins.

    Fertility rates are dropping rapidly already all over the world.

    Club of Rome predicted world population growth would slow by 2030 and population dropping rapidly around 2040.

  12. @robboinnz

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    I didn't buy anything you just said bro.
    It was all quite misanthropic at worst, deluded at best.
    Nothing mentioned regarding how do you level off the declining fertility rate, just the assumption it will happen. Reality is that this trend will continue.
    Our civilisation will decline, human development will stagnate, our potential will be snuffed out. It will be a 'long goodnight'.
    Of course this is music to the ears of the misanthropes.
    Living in a global version of Detroit is not a new utopia.
    And that 'report' saying the future is bright with a falling population, was written by Stephanie Feldstein, a simple Google of her reveals she's ideological.
    If you care about the human condition and its potential, we need to grow sustainably, or at least maintain our numbers.
    We could easily have 100 billion people on Earth and live in balance with the environment, do the math people.

  13. @alexanderx33

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Open the boarders completely if you want, it won't stop economic collapse if the overall population still drops.
    It's like you forgot the statement about japan partway through the presentation.

    If the population ages it gets less productive, if it gets less productive then social welfare programs bear an increasing burden per young person. If young people are expending more effort for the same productive capacity that they keep fewer of them will be able to afford as many children, fewer children makes the population age ect ect. Population decrease in general (but especially when there are government entitlement programs that redsistribute wealth to the elderly) consititude a economic negative feedback loop that gets reallly really bad.

  14. @Damremont18

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    We can’t let more people into Canada because we have no place to put them. We don’t have enough reasonably priced housing in the country where new immigrants want to live. And there is an equally great shortage for born and bred Canadians in our major centres. Canadians are not xenophobic generally and would welcome immigrants if we didn’t have to compete with them for living space.

  15. @arktseytlin

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Bringing Africans to Europe and America is NOT the answer. We should rather play it out, let the old pass on, and hopefully the newer generations will have better sense, and lots of empty housing

  16. @afgor1088

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    "the number of international migrants and refugees who had fled conflict… has increased… this is an amazing opportunity for wealthy countries"

    shows the utter evil, white supremacism and faux-progressivism of this approach to the population problem. instead of, oh, i don't know, reducing work hours, making housing more affordable, bringing in cradle to grave public services etc. instead you propose we make ourselves dependant on a world where the non-white global majority are kept in a never-ending hell.

    disgusting.

  17. @vijayaravindhari

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Bro too much money is required to raise kids, just to have the basics figured. Not everyone is earning that much money, considered the fact that the disparity between rich people and others are getting bigger day by day.

  18. @Pengalen

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Pro immigration is anti-the current population. People and cultures are not fungible. While we definitely don't need the human population to grow, actually any, at all, we do need to make cultures, governments and societies that are pro-people rather than pro-business, so that people in industrialized countries can afford all the required basics to have homes and families. Continuous immigration from the third world will just result in the entire planet turning into a third world hell hole, as it is already doing.

  19. @StuJones-gn7te

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Those demographers are wrong. Population growth is already dropping everywhere in the world.

    Club of Rome predicted world population would start dropping around 2040 and would never hit 10 billion. In fact it doesn't look it will quite (or just barely) hit 8 billion right now.

    Their graph shows a population of less than 2 billion by 2100.

  20. @jimbelton

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Many demographers believe the UN has grossly overestimated the peak global population and how long it will take to reach it, because they predict that current birth rates will continue to apply, even though they are dropping world wide. It was the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), funded by Bill Gates, that predicted the population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. The Austrian for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) predicts a peak only 9.4 billion coming in 2070. As the rest of the world catches up to the west, where will we find immigrants? Recently, there has been a net loss of Mexican born immigrants in America moving back to Mexico. The reason Syrian refugees are in Turkey and Jordan is because they can walk there. Nothing to do with xenophobia. When population collapses in China, it will wreck havoc on supply chains, causing massive shortages and a global recession as countries struggle to rebuild their industrial bases. One geopolitical pundit predicts between 1 and 2 billion people will starve as a result of deglobalization. That doesn't sound great to me.

  21. @Phantom-mg5cg

    October 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    8:11 I think that this could very well be a correlation as countries where women can get into important position are usually more liberal and open minded and countries with such a culture are more likely to care about climate change and nature.

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