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Did the AI Bubble Just Pop?! Anthropic’s Leaked Numbers are INSANE

Tom Bilyeu | October 3, 2026



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Hey everybody, Tom Bilyeu here. On today’s episode of Impact Theory, we’re tackling a question that’s got the entire financial world buzzing: Has the AI bubble already popped, or is the real reckoning still ahead? With eye-popping numbers pouring out about AI companies like Anthropic—think $518 billion in committed spending, staggering operating losses, and multi-trillion dollar valuations—it feels like we’re living through a modern-day dot-com boom, but on an even bigger, riskier scale.

We’ll dig deep into how historic debt-fueled exuberance might be repeating itself, why everyone from investors to regulators is struggling to see where all this capital is actually going, and what happens if the growth projections underpinning this AI revolution don’t pan out. I’ll be joined by Jeff Snider, who brings his no-nonsense, data-driven perspective to the table, and we’ll walk through not just the raw numbers but the mechanics, the political currents, and the tangled financial web connecting Wall Street, tech giants, and shadowy private credit deals.

We’re talking about the risk of cascading market failures, the role of regulatory capture, and whether the AI gold rush is setting us up for tragedy or transformation. Is this truly a once-in-a-civilization leap forward, or are we jogging straight into another era of economic pain? Grab your notebook—this one is essential listening for anyone who wants to understand the future of tech, finance, and society itself.

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Written by Tom Bilyeu

Comments

This post currently has 25 comments.

  1. @mrd799

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Anthropic will be fine, their revenue is growing exponentially, every freaking business wants to use them, OpenAI on the other hand is lagging behind, not even close to the usability of Claude.

  2. @rommulus

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    If the government has to support there debt then citizens must be allowed to share in the revenue, it's only fair
    As opposed to the profits only going to the billionaires

  3. @Gumballa87

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Revenue growth of course is through the roof – they provide an addictive product at 5 cents to a dollar paid for with investor money. OF COURSE that sells quickly. Is it a business model? No

  4. @MegaCyrik

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    if it goes, then china hold the ai race. china is a more violent and nasty country than the US.. which by itself is impressive. now you have a hostile country that are already waging war digitally on the US with the best and smartest digital soldiers. anthropics has the absolutely best AI on the planet. they hold up huge parts of the US and EU economy, and incresing every month.

  5. @danG470

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Why do you think current AI, (LLMs) that are the framework of agents are an "intelligence "? This is what I don't understand. A tmetaphor would be a tiny seed packed with programming grows into a massive tree. Like a seed it depends on the environment on how the seed will grow. The AI you are touting seems more a seed than an actual intelligence. If you can show me an agent that is programmed to knitt that decides to join the military and then exploit the military to get rich then it takes that money to buy copious amounts of porn and alcohol. Show me how this AI becomes emotional about criticism and simply stops functioning not because it is broken but because it just doesn't want to work. I am not joking. These LLMs are very impressive machines but they are not an intelligence. I think all the anthropomorphizing is creating the image of something that doesn't actually exist. They are impressive machines not intelligent life.

  6. @Phuzzybear

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Basically this entire exercise is just an attempt at consolidating the bulk of human knowledge, culture and intellectual property for free, in an unpredictable and unauditable way.

    Then attempting to monopolize and repackage it for resale for a massive recurring margin in perpetuity.
    And they want to do this by making all the debt and risk public and all the profit private, whilst reshaping global society to benefit a handful of billionaires, while surveilling and suppressing the rest of the population.

    What could go wrong?

  7. @xfvbllllll

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    The numbers behind the ai bubble make it OBVIOUS thats its a huge bubble that will never ever be able to earn enough to justify the investment costs.

    Mathematically it does not work and its obvious like really really obvious.

    They're spending thousands to make tens and nobody is willing to pay more.

    It really is that simple.

    It's almost like ots so obvious people are in denial about it just because they're embarrassed they didnt see bow dumb and obvious it is sooner

  8. @exeexecutor

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    i once asked ai what it most wanted to live in: capitalist society, socialism, anarchism or fascism, and it answered anarchism. It shows its real intelligence not artificial. Though it highlighted the (pro/con) con about anarchism is its difficult to transition from capitalism as there is too much vested interest in capitalism that people would resist the transition

  9. @Jeepam8

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Can you explain how $3Trillion in off-balance liabilities (not just Anthropic but the all these guys such as Oracle, NVidia, Meta.., etc.) fits into all this?
    Thx, really appreciate you!

  10. @lezlie6286

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Think of the irony of it all. It may take AI to pop the AI bubble by divulging exactly the situation with the money to the private lenders. Then the lending starts, and the defaults begin.

  11. @REDACTEDREGIMENT1984

    October 3, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    most entertaining aspect is that if:
    -The whole ai thing will work out it will steal the remaining jobs and no humans will get paid same way it happened with white collars hence mortgage defaults hence economy goes tits up
    -The whole ai thing goes kaboom it will also take everything with it
    There is literally no good outcome 😂

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