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This El Niño Is Starting to Look Like the One Scientists Feared

Fexl | August 5, 2026



The Atlantic is heading for one of its quietest hurricane seasons in over a decade. At the same time, in the same ocean system, the Pacific is producing storms early and often. Both are being driven by the same shift in ocean temperature, a shift now tracking toward record strength, on pace with the two most extreme events ever recorded. This is the story of how one signal can suppress one coastline while arming another, why that “reliable” pattern has already broken once before, and why the very intensity calming the Atlantic this year could set up the exact opposite risk in 2027.

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Timestamps:
0:00 El Niño
0:40 The Season Nobody Expected
3:24 What El Niño Actually Is
7:00 How “Super” Is Super
10:31 The Pacific Awakens
13:09 When the Rule Breaks
16:37 The Boomerang

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Written by Fexl

Comments

This post currently has 47 comments.

  1. @martiansoon9092

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    2,4C was measured earlier at El Niño 3.4… And far more at 1+2 … Also 9.1C pocket of warm water is updwelling from below…

    It is already at super category. And some models says that even 4C sea surface temperatures are possible at El Niño 3.4. To compare this 2015-2016 peaked at 2,7C…

    And this keeps warming to December…

    Super should and likely will be replaced with historic soon. Strongest in measured history. Perhaps even already.

    Also measuring what happens between sea surface and atmosphere, the correlation is already one of the strongest ones.

  2. @kysz1

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    The good news is that terrible weather patterns will make more and more people realize that scientists are telling the truth and the politicians are lying.
    The bad news its that this also may be the sign that it's allready too late to prevent what's coming next.

    At least we get to tell our parents and grandparents "We told you so", but like Volverine would say: "except it's on all of us!"

  3. @lemuero

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    Scientist friends told me to leave my home and find a spot higher up in the mountain. They said 2027 will be like out of a movie. It will be bad they said. Millions gonna die. Now I'm worried and am selling up to move. Guys you should do the same. It's serious.

  4. @crybabyteej

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    2:30
    When are people going to start paying attention to when Hurricane Micheal hit, instead of always being Andrew???

    Hurricane Micheal was a Cat 5 that hit from Mexico beach to Panama city beach and no one was ready for it. When everyone went to sleep that night it was only a Cat 2 (not fun storms, but the houses are built for it)—only a few hours before landfall, it skyrocketed to a Cat 5 and OBLITERATED the gulf SO bad, it tore Tyndall AFB apart and now that base is literally one of the – newest and most modern – bases built to date.

    I can't forget what this storm did to all the trees too. It caused so many fires because there wasn't natural shade anymore from the sun. Everything dried. Everything fried.

    This storm was only back in 2018.
    💀🪦
    (passionate about this storm because I spent a good part of my teens in Panama city beach, so I remember all the live videos I saw from friends on Facebook who were trying to hide from the active storm and me trying to help keep who all I could calm. This storm needs to be talked about more; pisses me off it isn't—why? Because it's the south?)

  5. @JuanGMedranoSixx

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    “Controlled chaos” and be afraid tactics. Nature is nature the universe is life and our ego is beyond infinite in its view of our control over it all. It will lead to our extinction as it has lead to our cease of evolution 21:16

  6. @Ryan-e4b1v

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    Thank you. Increased heat makes more energy. We're unknowingly performing a chemistry experiment exhausting evermore CO2 into the atmosphere. AMOC collapse may take decades however local effects are obvious.

  7. @MatthewMitchell-r9q

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    Where I am in Northern Canada we had a years worth of rain fall in a month, and it still hits hard and fast almost daily. Tornados, super cells, micro bursts. Some days the roads turn into rivers, underpasses turn into lakes, the ground even after 4 days of sun is still completely saturated.

  8. @kealahau6727

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    I am 17°south and 150° W in the middle of the pacific and never been that cold at this time of the year..I think it s soo warm at the equator that is pulling more than usual the cold from the south pole …so I predict in october when the winds are flipping south to north that we are gonna bake and then get blown apart !

  9. @bowhunter5051

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    It almost seems like its the end of the world the way these geologists are carrying on about it. Personally other than the extreme heat I don't see what the fuss is all about. Last summer was really no different. Out of control forest fires extreme heat people dying it happens every year only now in the age of social media we hear of it more often. It is what it is.

  10. @Ocean-Lives

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    This yellow stripe or band of super heat charged was not created by a comet landing or aliens barbecuing in spaceships in the Ocean,it's created by two earth events in progress.
    One being earth's crust has opened to a thin membrane at depth.Gasping for fresh air marine life lay on sand beaches.

  11. @SamTheIrishTxn

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    5:34 this is why global climate modeling is a joke. We probably dont understand more than a third of the inputs into climate. Everything from plant and animal populations to events coming from the cosmos can have an impact. And the butterfly effect real. So while we may understand some of these bigger systems, we really dont need to be freaking people out about a short period of industrial revolution setting the climate. Technology will solve our impacts on the climate. One day it will be economical to put nuclear waste into space, fling it into jupiter lol. Nuclear power and whatever may come after are not as bad. So that means and max 500 years of fossil fuel inputs.

  12. @SamTheIrishTxn

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    El Nino has a positive effect on where I live. It tends to be less hot, but more humid to increase the heat index. But it also creates thunderstorms. Unfortunately they come along with flash flooding quite often with this string an el nino. But the land is greener all year long. My backyard is a 10 foot tall disaster

  13. @ScottRiddleArtist

    August 5, 2026 at 1:24 am

    we live in the mountains of North Central California. The Santa Cruz mountains. usually the springs catastrophic grain to us. But we’re used to it. This year we’re going to have the advantage of solar energy and batteries. Which helps a lot with all the power outages. The other thing we love about big rain years as it helps to replenish water sources in the mountains and it makes for a great mushroom hunting season.

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