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The global baby bust | The Gray Area

Vox | July 21, 2026



Birth rates are dropping and global population growth is slowing. Why? We’re heard all the different speculation: It’s the economy. It’s housing costs. It’s the feminists. But what if the biggest driver is that thing we all carry in our pockets?

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In today’s episode, guest host Christine Emba speaks with data journalist John Burn-Murdoch about declining fertility rates across vastly different cultures and economies. They discuss the role smartphones might play in this phenomenon, why governments have struggled to reverse the trend, and how dropping birthrates could change our economy and culture.

Guest Host Christine Emba, columnist and author
Guest: John Burn-Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter for The Financial Times

00:00 Intro
01:49 What is the replacement rate?
07:43 Why are birth rates dropping?
12:48 Why governments cannot reserve the trend
25:13 Why are birthrates dropping in developing countries?
33:02 Can birthrates recover?
42:40 How can we change our relationship to our phones?

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Written by Vox

Comments

This post currently has 49 comments.

  1. @skellybean8659

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Because everything is too expensive. Because the environment is destroyed. Because schools teach useless topics instead of how to make clothes and houses for ourselves. Because the 1% do awful things to kids.

  2. @carolineauch

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    So it's not really technology then…but via more accessible knowledge which has allowed women to realise at an accelerated rate that they don't and shouldn't want to settle for mediocrity and actually have standards. So if this is such an issue…this can be solved by men picking UP their slack and becoming better (in their ambition, in sharing the household chores, in becoming more introspective and becoming better friends and lovers…)

  3. @delilah8476

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Well…. kids are awfully annoying. People who let their children become their entire identity are even more annoying. I say this as a woman with an MBA who has known since I was 13 that losing myself to being a mom wasn't for me. We only get one life to live.

  4. @white_finch

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    I keep people talking about lower birthrates, but I never understood why is it an issue.
    There was a boom on birthrates with the Industrial Revolution, the drop was bound to happen one day. Add to that the fact that the 1% is boasting that they won't need the lower classes to work for them in the future because they will have AI robots, so why should anyone today have a child if their future is to be unemployed and homeless?

  5. @ApArt1003

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    This is good news. Esp for the planet and fellow earthlings. Let the AI and robots produce, consume their own product and pay taxes. Let's keep it falling people! There's no fun and joy in having and raising annoying, burden, noisy and messy kids!

  6. @InconsistentManner

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Systemic Problem and Mathematics Problem.. Hans Rosling – 11 Billion People, by 2100 the planet will plateau at in population and growth at 11 billion. THIS IS MATHS.
    The systemic problem is there is low or zero future prospects to entice childbirth. For the first time in modern history the current upcoming generations will be worse off than Their parents. System is broken, and mathematics is by default showing the growth percentage is getting lower and lower. in 1990 the growth rate percentage was 2.42%, 2020 that rate is 1.81%, that is on average a fall of 1% to 1.5% annually. current statistical numbers show that by 2076 to 2094 the plateau will hit and shortly after there will be the first human population growth percentage of a negative number.

  7. @Waterford-d69p

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Phones (really, the internet in general) gave females access and exposure to an overall quality of men that they did not previously have access to.
    Naturally, they all hold out for the best man they can find, even if it means holding out far beyond their most fertile years. .
    Unbeknownst to their solipsistic little selves, they can't ALL have the top 10% of men even though they have potential access and exposure to them.
    SO, they hold out, for what amounts to no reason, because "I'm special, I deserve the best" and wind up not reproducing.
    You can sum it up by saying the internet broke our women and no one would argue with you. It's feminism too though. Pedestalization of women and simultaneous trivialization of men is just not a good look for relationship formation.

  8. @savagesweetheart90

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    I just don't want any 🤷🏻‍♀️
    I had an amazing childhood with a ton of experiences and opportunities. Just because I don't want children doesn't mean I had a terrible childhood. My parents are my biggest supporters of my Childfree decision

  9. @fernfractal

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    ppl also live a LOT longer than they used to & prolly don't need to be replaced as frequently. how about improving the quality of life for the ppl that already exist?

  10. @FishareFriendsNotFood972

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Sigh. The fertility rate for the entire CONTINENT of Africa is 4.0 right now. So, no, there's not a 'global baby bust'. We're not running out of humans any time soon. We were having a globe crushing, environment destroying, catastrophic rate of human population expansion, and we still are!!!! it's just slowing compared to like, the 1950s. And if Western developed countries are so worried about not enough young people…..just allow more immigration.

  11. @Jake.r606

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Throwing everyone into the work force was a mistake.. also people are incredibly selfish and self absorbed and don't want to "waste" their best years raising children and end all the "fun" they are having. The new generations on the whole just don't value the idea of creating life the way their parents and grandparents did. I don't see this trend reversing.

  12. @winstonoboogie2424

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Because life in our societies is not worth the trouble we go through to participate in it.
    Here we are at the pinnacle of civilization, genocide has been normalized, we've destroyed the planet.
    Our history is horrific and ridiculous.
    Everything science does goes straight to the Pentagon, anything that can be weaponized will be weaponized.
    Suppose the Scientific communities had focused their efforts on creating peace love and understanding instead of nuclear weapons, etc.
    Unconscionable things happen all day every day.
    We don't live in a normal world, we live in a peculiar one.

  13. @everythingisfine9988

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    I think the phone isn't helping but its also an escape. Job (good paying jobs) require so much skill development. That takes a very long time which means fewer kids with larger investment. So when you don't have the skills then phones, drugs, gaming become escape vehicles from a crewel reality. And the fact everything is already owned and what is remaining is becoming more toxic why are surprised about the outcome?

  14. @patcartier8171

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Birth rates going down isn’t a bug of contemporary societies. It’s a feature. They will continue to fall. Not because the planet needs protecting. Not so much because faith, or money, is lacking. A major factor is status, especially for women: because when someone is asked “what do you do for a living?”, the answer “I raise my children” ranks barely higher than “I collect baseball cards”. But above all, because more and more people want, or need, more time for themselves.

    What is time made of, in modern times? It's made up of 4 elements, even though there’s only room for three. Trying to fit all four leads to overload, resentment, and often, collapse.

    The 4 elements are: 1) Sleep — 2) Work — 3) Family (children) — 4) ‘Leisure’ (addiction to screens, to books, to collecting, to fiction, to love, to friendship, to solitude; playing a musical instrument, immersing oneself in dead languages, indulging in unprofitable conversations, building the self, tending one’s garden, living with one’s ghosts, etc.)

    Can you do without sleep? Obviously not. Cutting back damages your health — seriously. Can you do without work? Yes, if you were born with a silver spoon in your mouth. In other words: no. That leaves just two adjustable variables. Family, leisure.

    If you’re being reasonable, you follow the orders of the guard dogs of adulthood: once you reach ‘maturity’, you’re supposed to slash your leisure time — especially screens — and act like a serious adult. But here’s the snag: this so-called adult life is often the fastest way to miss out on life altogether. It’s getting harder to hide what governments everywhere would rather people not realise: that life without children is freer, more peaceful, and more prosperous than family life.

  15. @victoriarotramel2274

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    We already know that the number one way to increase a country’s gdp is to give women access to birth control and education. I would think those same factors are the main contributors lowering birth rates. Why are we trying to blame screens for this? It’s obvious that when given the ability to choose if they have children or not, women choose the later at higher and higher rates. In countries that have thrown billions at young people through tax breaks, free child care, and tons of other benefits, the bump in birth rates is negligible. The truth is that in the past women had no choice but to have children.

  16. @cami5173

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Poor people are being horseified. My BiL builds the data centers that will replace him, horses helped build the highways….

    There simply isn’t a place for poor people in the future, with enough automation they’ll be able to bring the population of the planet down 50% I think, just going to enjoy the time I have here.

    Wish I wasn’t born a horse.

  17. @Taklberri

    July 21, 2026 at 2:18 am

    Feminism TLDR. Ignorant to think otherwise. It’s the major factor. Lack of men wanting to commit to chased women either. Repeal the 19th, re-promote the nuclear family and religion in schools. Radical Liberals have done immeasurable damage to this country. Tbh, I love watching these feminist cat ladies in misery tho 😊 women should never be in leadership/politic roles either. Bunch of hard uncomfortable truths to hear but it needs to be said.

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