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Something Strange Is Happening to the Sun… and It’s Alarming

Fexl | June 14, 2026



In 2019, the NOAA and NASA panel that officially forecasts the Sun’s activity predicted that the current solar cycle would be quiet, almost forgettable. Instead, it’s run roughly forty percent stronger than they forecast and arrived nearly a year early. The models the world depends on to protect satellites and power grids have failed in real time, and nobody can fully agree on why.

What’s playing out is a question that runs deeper than solar physics. Can the behavior of a turbulent, magnetized plasma actually be predicted in advance, or is there a horizon built into the system, a natural limit, past which prediction breaks down?
All of this leaves us with an obvious question: what is our star actually doing up there?

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Timestamps:
0:00 Sun
3:33 Why the Models Broke
9:04 The Rival Method That Got It Right
14:08 The Gannon Storm and What It Cost Us
21:58 Where the Science Stands, and What May Still Be Coming

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Written by Fexl

Comments

This post currently has 33 comments.

  1. @ChuckJones-i3p

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    What is largely not considered about the Sun is messing up the models as well I think. We have all heard, the sun is an ionized gas, plasma. While true, there is much more to the story. Plasma changes consistency based on its density which alters its coupling to the magnetic field and potentially other forces. Most have seen the video of the solar flare coming back down and impacting the surface produce concentric ripples. An unsatisfactory excuse for this was given. However at a certain coupling the consistency begins to act like a liquid and even higher coupling makes it behave as what is called a coulomb crystal. Most think this is only in cores of largest stars or white dwarfs and neutron stars. I disagree. Between the liquid and crystal regime large scale coherent activity can become dominant. Robitaille is not as far off base as some appear to think even if his exact composition may be incorrect.
    It takes a lattice structure to produce blackbody radiation but it seems no one considers the middle ground where the plasma coupling enabled the formation of an effective structure exhibiting this behavior. This may also lead to previously unsuspected processes in the Sun as well .

    Other external factors, although negligible on the surface, likely have effects at critical limits heretofore unknown .

  2. @sunso1991

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    This is why i think climate change action is a total waste of time. Those activists have a kid like worldview. They think the sun is predictable, the biosphere is static, and the only variable is human's existence. The climate change actions childish nearsighted "solutions" are misdirecting trillion dollars of research, policy, and infrastructure planning.
    Instead of making us more resilient, they are making us more fragile for a theocracy type of dogma

  3. @JK-Visions

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    This is most interesting. Perhaps the truth is combining both models. Or perhaps they already did. The info is so much I can't start to comprehensive. But I love the sun!

  4. @muntee33

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    This reframes the main premise as to disregard the main principle altogether.

    Lets not forget we used the acclaimed validity of a model to make predictions.
    And the prediction of the following solar cycles didn't use speculation and opinion as you inferred. This may have been the respective opinions but the model forecast update used the 'valid' model to take the data sets trend lines and current parameters to calculate the most likely progression of the solar activity, with the maximum +/- variations from this prediction being the result of the physical laws applying to the models underlying principles.

    Which usually means the model as it stands is no longer irrefutably valid and must include this violationnof laws against its operation as to allow any further such violations to develop a dataset that can be referenced with the invalid model to better understand what is missing or what has changed.

    But crickets

  5. @PlumbinPerry

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    If it is a fact that farmers "had" to abandon fields because GPS has gone down, that is utterly pathetic. When will society wake up again? Oh, ☀️💥. That's when. 🙄

  6. @stevetheborg

    June 14, 2026 at 9:48 pm

    conspiracy theory. is a barycenter filled with dark matter tied to the SMBH that moves in and out of the sun, moving in and out of the surface of the sun… and can we get it mapped and the images? i think i saw some objecy go down in the atmosphere of the sun where i though something was comming out, then going back in. packs of dark matter UFO's seem to be able to emerge from somewhere in the barycenter. if i were jumping blind into a solar system, i think i could stop in the barycenter.. if there was nothing in it..and while nothing was in it.. shit popped out. big magnetic bubble. just appeared. object in the center.

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