SHOCK POLL: Florida Now a TOSS-UP? Vindman Closes Gap
We analyze the latest Florida midterm polling between Vindman and Moody to determine if the state is trending toward a tossup and what this shift means for the broader battle for Senate control.
Stay ahead of the 2026 Midterm Elections with data-driven analysis on Senate races, House battlegrounds, and the shifting political landscape. From breaking polling updates to economic trends like inflation and Social Security, we break down what the 2026 election results mean for you.
Subscribe to The TEC Show to navigate the road to the midterms with factual, non-partisan deep dives into voter sentiment and the fight for Congressional control.
📌 What We Cover:
2026 Midterm Forecasts: Expert analysis on the House and Senate map.
Poll Tracking: Real-time updates on key swing states and districts.
Kitchen Table Issues: How the economy, healthcare, and affordability are driving voters.
The Path to 2026: Understanding demographic shifts and turnout trends.
🔗 Connect & Support
SUBSTACK (Deep Dive Analysis): https://substack.com/@thetecshow?utm_campaign=profile&utm_medium=profile-page — Get the full polling data and exclusive 2026 election essays delivered to your inbox.
INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/thetecshownews?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet&igsh=ZDNlZDc0MzIxNw== — Follow for daily political updates, Reels, and behind-the-scenes of the show.
Take Action – Contact Your Representatives
Staying informed is the first step; making your voice heard is the next.
U.S. Capitol Switchboard: (202) 224-3121
Find Your Representative: https://www.house.gov/representatives
White House Switchboard: (202) 456-1414
#2026Midterms #PoliticalAnalysis #Election2026 #SenateRaces #HouseOfRepresentatives #VoterTrends #PollingUpdate #TheTECShow
@TheTECShow
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
With Vindman leading in the most recent poll but trailing in the aggregate, do you think the Democratic party should start diverting major resources into Florida, or focus strictly on defending states like Georgia and Michigan?
@cvolante8032
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I keep seeing articles about people who moved to Florida during the pandemic are leaving the state. Many of them Republicans who changed the dynamic in the 2024 elections, so it will be interesting to see how that possibly effects state and local election results in 26 and 28
@garaf1246
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Unfortunately we have seen this movie before and we know how the ending always catches us by surprise. The Cuban population has been brainwashed for decades by the Republicans. We should not expect them to jump the proverbial fence and realize they’ve been manipulated for years. IMO: How the Hispanic/Cuban population votes, so goes the race.
@peterrobinson1041
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
always a shot for dems
@frankcappellino9413
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I think Texas will go Blue this year 💙 before Florida does! If Texas doesn't go Blue and James Talarico doesn't win. Florida will definitely not go Blue!!! James Talarico has best Shot of a Democratic Candidate winning for the United States Senate. Since 1994.
@Centurion101B3C
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Hm, With Vindman trending towards a path to majority, it brings into scope the funding dilution problem for the republicans. The republicans are being led to the (hopefully very painful) death by papercuts, because they find themselves having to fight on an increasing/expanding range of 'must have' states. Money spent on defeating Vindman cannot be spent in other theatres. Adding to this the macho culture of the Latino/Cubano section of the electorate which will simply refuse to contemplate a woman running for senator, the republican party is (to speak with the Chinese) living in interesting times, which is unwisely to be seen as a benediction.
@michaelcontreras148
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
It’s not going to happen. America is turning red especially with us minorities
@sagecaveofwonders
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I hope Vinman Wins
@DannyTate-j1y
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Thanks D
@faerydae29
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I’m seeing Vindman (for senate) and jolly (for governor) are starting to pick up steam and could flip Florida blue. BUT we need help!!! More ads in English AND Spanish!!
@warheadsnation
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
The fact that Vindman is still behind in most polls shows that the Florida "national security" voter is a myth. What they have is voters who vote for the national insecurity of Cuba regardless of how much worse it makes things for all sides.
@leftisbestpolitics
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I wish this was true but I think we have about 10yrs before Florida will come back to a flippable State again.
@TKO67
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
It is a no brainer. Democrats need to start pushing hard in Floridia. Look at Mamdani!!!!!!
@harveykitzman9083
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Come on Florida – we need Vindman in the Senate!
@sabinejeanphilippe3420
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Make Florida blue
@bobbun9630
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
While I would be thrilled to see Vindman ahead, I can't give the Change Research poll a whole lot of credit. That could be true of the other polls as well, but I focused on the one that shows Vindman ahead since it's the anomalous result. Change Research can reasonably be described as a Democratic Party aligned partisan pollster, and the report I looked at didn't have enough information to really evaluate the quality of the results, as it lacked any information about the sample population except for "2,070 registered voters of which 1,593 say they will likely vote in the upcoming 2026 midterm election", and gives no crosstabs. It's also clear that at some point they gave information which could be considered leading if asked in the wrong order, like information about drug allegations made about the GOP candidate for governor. To really analyze that poll requires more than a memo giving conclusions.
@rakialogan3372
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Vote Democrats every election going forward 🗳️💙⏩🙏 every vote counts
@JudithEDavis
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
VOTE BLUE!!!
@lindagiles5447
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
To take the governor or Senate seat in Florida would be sweet after all of Republicans cheating let's go yall
@lindagiles5447
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Let's go blue Florida f trump and f Republicans
@akuaagyeiwaa2097
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Oh flip , flipping flip flipped 😂, you are always not sure
@Bratedd82
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
🙏⚖️🇺🇸🙏💙🌊🌊🌊🙏🌎☮️
@equalizer1946
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Recent polls show Alex Vindman trailing incumbent Ashley Moody in the Florida U.S. Senate race, with Moody leading by about 7-9 points depending on the poll. Vindman has strong fundraising but faces an uphill battle with independent voters leaning toward Moody
@tomg6318
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Unless you make over $400,000 a year and have considerable wealth I don't know why anybody would think Republicans would do anything for them
@SuperfluousUserX
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
People have to keep in mind how much worse things will get before Election Day.
@ShannonBradford
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I love that map behind you. Where did you get it?
@SusanaDiaz-j9w
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Good I hope so their is people that need to vote like me and my you woke up finally neighbor. In August early voting can’t wait. But a warning we need to be aware of Elon Musk going for the voting machine snd rigging the elections. I hope democrats are aware and sting by to check on them.
@mileswalcott7241
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Vinman might not win Florida but he will stretch GOP resources to save guard any surge by Democrats and it weakens the GOP senate plans overall
@lf1666
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Great!!! I hope the lying gop will fail as usual
@JettSett1906
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Need him to win Florida. Rubio is going to be the GOP presidential nominee
@gretawandrick1902
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Blue 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 💙 folks
@LouisDelgado-d6t
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
I do have a question. For someone with less than $100,000 to invest, How would you recommend we enter the market. I'm looking to study some traders and copy their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach???
@danielortega2351
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
It is a fact. For the last 25 years, the Republican party has failed the people. They campaign on pure lies, and once in power, they unleash their hell-bent far right Nazie agenda on the people.
@jrstar1439
May 24, 2026 at 11:22 am
Moody will win hands down, the same with Paxton in Texas. Collins will be re-elected in Maine over the Nazi aka porta potty masterbaiter. The flip will be in NH as it will flip red.
Comments are closed.