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“The Housing Market Makes No Sense!” – Why You Shouldn’t Buy Right Now | Morgan Housel

Tom Bilyeu | August 27, 2025

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This post currently has 38 comments.

  1. @akayk1928

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Interesting to see how Toms channel changed content , few yeaes bacj it was so so good with 1 hr episodes but now its all negativity , 2-3 hrs conversations , no ones got time to watch so much . even views have decreased . Hope we get back to wht it used to be .

  2. @tatianastarcic

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Great video! For 2024, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.

  3. @AndersonFair-cy2bb

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    I sold a couple properties in 2020 and I'm waiting for a house crash to happen so I buy cheap. In the meantime, I've been looking at stocks as an alt., any idea if it's a good time to buy? I hear people say it's a madhouse and a dead cat bounce right now but on the other hand, I still see and read articles of people pulling over $225k by the weeks in trades, how come?

  4. @larrypaul-cw9nk

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    The issue is that either the renter or the owner must in some way pay insurance and property taxes if they want a "permanent roof" with utilities like electricity, gas and water. Because of this, many people—at least in California, where I currently reside—are living in tents. No taxes, rent, mortgages, or insurance. The number of people who tell me they live in their car that I meet amazes me. Its crazy out here!

  5. @JiffyCakes

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Price is determined by supply and demand. We can have 20% mortgage rates – the issue is there aren't enough houses so you either pay 2000$ rent or you pay 2000$ mortgage.

  6. @hkgamma

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Sure, sure. Same "smart people" in 2020 – the WORST recession is coming, we will all die!!! 4 years later, economy is still booming.

    Now a house is… let's say 1 mil USD. This guy = don't buy now! In 2030, same house = 3 mil USD, same guy will say don't buy now :))))) Very smart guy….

  7. @posthardcoresinger

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    The hell is this guy on? The stimulus was FAR AND AWAY given to the BS PPP loans and big money. The average financially illiterate person DID NOT save their money lol, they spent it, and drove up earnings for Amazon and other large companies.

  8. @JackPaul-vs3bq

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    The unemployment rate been touted by the Government isn't the real unemployment rate.
    They don't even count people who have stopped looking for work. Moreover most of those jobs are temporary, low paying jobs and many people are having to work 2 or 3 part time jobs to stay afloat.

  9. @KREEMTHEDREAM

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Yeah I have a theory the housing market will start to collapse. That whole increase on taxes and insurance every year. I also believe that many of these first time home buyers look at the fixed cost when they buy the home and think oh I can pay that for 30 years no issue, but they learn the hard way about tax increase, insurance and overall maintenance for a home. I myself was surprised when I had an excrow shortage and had to pay more eventually. Also increase in food / gas prices everything else I don't think many home owners budget accordingly to market conditions and they are barley breaking even at the end of the month. It's just my opinion.

  10. @mytruthbekind5793

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    If people and corporations would stop buying homes at inflated prices then wouldn’t that be a good start? I refuse. Taxes, insurance and maintenance costs increase. Why? $1m for a starter home in need of work? You can’t find homes below $500k. Insane.

  11. @mytruthbekind5793

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    I enjoyed reading his book very much because I learned some things. It is not the be all, end all. It cannot be. Regular people don’t have a voice. Others are making decisions for us. When will we fight back and how? Don’t we need a voice and a say? How can we get it since we can’t buy politicians? We can’t buy lobbyists.

  12. @FreedomTalkMedia

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Nobody has cash because interest rates are less than inflation. To hold cash is to lose it. You have to buy things with it before the price goes up. At best, you buy things like rental properties that generate cash at an ever inflating rate, every year. Then you can get new and increasing cash that you can also quickly dispose of. End inflation and let interest rates be natural and people will hold cash. All we have to do for both of those is for the Fed to hold is balance sheet constant. In such a situation, prices would slowly fall as productivity improves.

  13. @FreedomTalkMedia

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    I think we need unemployment to go up a bit to pop this housing bubble. We need people to be forced to sell. I guess the other thing that could happen is over like 5-10 years, builders could grow the inventory through new construction.

  14. @KarrinaTaylorBrown

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    This person knows nothing. Interest rates here in Northern Virginia never got near to 8%. 6.5-7% yes. We are trying to accommodate the next generation bulge after a derth of building in the last 10-15 years. Consequently, everyone that I know is seeing 3-7 contract offers on each listing that they put on the market for any house listed in the desirable suburbs of Fairfax County, Alexandria and Arlington and surrounding areas. He is correct that sellers are not selling because nearly all people with a mortgage are holding 3% mortgage and don't want to sell their house. However, there are many more new households forming than we have houses to sell them. All the local jurisdictions are making changes to the zoning code to accommodate people legally making rental units in their owner-occupied homes.
    This really does not feel like 2007, when prices had climbed to the previous peak in real estate prices. At that time, buyers were using adjustable rate mortgages and "option payment ARMS" which they did not understand. Consequently, once people bought a home, then they realized that they could not afford it. Now, nearly all the loans are fixed-rate loans which people have to be able to afford to close on the loan. And, with the employment market being so tight, we are not going to see a quick fall in prices. If (the idiots) lower the mortgage interest rates, then the housing prices will go even higher. Not good.
    I am seeing older, single-family homes come on the market – thank goodness. Many of these older homes are owned by old people who are leaving the homes – either their lives are ending, or they are downsizing and going to live in relative's homes, retirement homes, or nursing homes. So, we are seeing some homes come on the market in this section of the market.
    Budget condo prices are starting to come down a little. The budget part of the market is always more susceptible to monthly payments. And monthly payments are high right now, and so the prices of these properties are falling, slightly.
    Also, there are a lot of luxury homes, priced over $2M. The builders have been making money taking down smaller older homes and then renovating or building new homes. So, there seems to be an oversupply in this segment.
    Rents are unbelievably high too. So, there is no relief in the rental market.
    I do see a few more foreclosures than I have seen since 2009-2013, and I am helping people out to sell their homes who are under financial stress. So, there are a few more cracks in the market than we have seen recently.
    Some salaries are really high. I can't believe it, but there are over 20 Fairfax County government workers making over $200,000/year. I just learned from a head-hunter that executives for non-profits, think tanks, and associations are being hired at $300,000-$400,000/year. Defense contractors are making a fortune, and with the recent "aid' packages, these salaries are going to go up.
    So, folks are going to continue to have to pay a LOT of money, and beat out the competition to buy a home here outside Washington DC.

  15. @NicholasBall130

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    I sold a couple properties in 2020 and I'm waiting for a house crash to happen so I buy cheap. In the meantime, I've been looking at stocks as an alt., any idea if it's a good time to buy? I hear people say it's a madhouse and a dead cat bounce right now but on the other hand, I still see and read articles of people pulling over $225k by the weeks in trades, how come?

  16. @albinothug

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Morgan is dead wrong when he says “the stimulus helped the poorest Americans the most.” The stimulus caused inflation, which hurts people who own zero assets… aka the stimulus checks hurt (in the long run) the poorest the most.

  17. @albinothug

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    “Strong job market”/“low unemployment” is a joke. People are working 8 different part time jobs/driving for Uber, etc. Job market is weak asf overall… it’s a k-shaped job market just like the k-shaped recovery after Covid. Our overlords want us to own nothing, be dependent on government handouts for survival, and to vote for/accept communism. They want us all dead or enslaved 🫳

  18. @beablos

    August 27, 2025 at 10:13 pm

    The market isn't going drop because of increased interest. people already own their homes and wont give up a 2.5% interest rate to move to a 7%. all the increased rates did was reduce supply by limiting forward mobility. New home building is also subject to the same rate increases as well as being directly impacted by inflation. when inflation drops we will see a huge increase in housing costs across the board. Big cities with $1,000,000 starter homes has more to do with the cities them no longer being sustainable. If you want to get ahead you have to leave the city and buy a home now and eat the interest then refinance the loan when the rates improve.

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