The Fed’s About to Repeat a 2008 Mistake — Into a Weak Economy
Hot October CPI (prices up 0.4%, core at the fastest 3-month pace of the year) has the Fed weighing a December rate hike — possibly 50bps — into a weak economy where inflation has wiped out wage gains since 2020. Tom breaks down the 2008 Trichet parallel, then digs into Nvidia’s spy-affair lawsuit, Anthropic’s Fable 5.2 building an OS from an empty folder, Elon’s orbital ‘sentient sun,’ Democratic Party infighting, Bernie’s wealth tax, and James Gunn’s DC exit.
00:00 Intro
01:39 The Fed’s Fatal Mistake & Hot Inflation
22:48 Nvidia’s Spy-Affair Lawsuit
32:42 AI Builds an OS in 8 Days
51:33 Elon’s Sentient Sun
01:03:36 Democrats’ Intra-Party Threats
01:10:17 Bernie’s Wealth Tax
01:25:06 Amazon, Walmart & Worker Power
01:45:59 Bukele in Haiti
01:50:09 James Gunn Out at DC
Sign up for my AI Masterclass: https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=TBS-Livestream&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social
Check us out wherever you get your podcasts:
Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/1nARKz2vTIOb7gC9dusE4b?si=a8daffd2bf1f48fd
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tom-bilyeus-impact-theory/id1191775648
Do you need my help STARTING a business? Join me here inside ZERO TO FOUNDER: (https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder)
Get the exact systems, mindset shifts, and principles that built a $1B brand delivered straight to your inbox every week. Subscribe for free (https://tombilyeu.com)
Check out our Video game – Project Kyzen: (https://projectkyzen.io/)
Catch Me Streaming on Twitch – (https://twitch.tv/tombilyeu)
Link to IT discord: https://discord.gg/TZKJ2etPbT
Tom’s Favorite Things List: https://amzn.to/41Ftt7e
For Business inquiries: connect@impacttheory.com
FOLLOW TOM:
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu
Twitter: https://x.com/TomBilyeu
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu
Comments
Latest news
@violinsheetmusicblog
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
It ain’t an episode without Tom simping hard on Elon Musk and mega corporations
@mysandwichlife
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
1:37:10 one of the rare times where the pushback from the black guy is correct. I understand what time is saying. Legally it's allowed. But it's bull crap that these companies don't just spend a little extra more. It may be will cost them a couple hundred million which is absolutely nothing when you're worth between 50 billion and a trillion dollars depending on the company. Even as a shareholder of Amazon it's one of my biggest positions I'd be happy taking a tiny cut if they spent a couple million having no independent contractors. It is 100% a BS legal loophole. And Amazon and these different type of companies know exactly what they're doing.
@sheafoote
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Doesn't make sense to keep inflation high by lowing the Fed rate when it is inflation that is robbing people of purchasing power.
@rickymartinez4951
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Hey Tom, still waiting to see your actual healthcare bill. Thanks from all of your fans 🎉
@gmghh457htr87
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
It's the envy and jealousy of small people against Elon.
@jadow13_
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Thank yall for the content as always ✨
@JoeSmith-jd5zg
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
3:45 I remember many of the liberals around 2010 saying they WANTED gas to go to $10 per gallon. They had to know that would bring about inflation, but they wanted it anyway. Guess they're getting toward their wish. So YES, concur with them! Inflation has been FAR too low. We need MANY MORE people forced into homelessness! Maybe we can even exceed the atrociousness of the Great Depression; that would be a remarkable accomplishment!! You know damn well who will benefit from inflation and that the majority will suffer. But hey, maybe all that wanted $10 gas and I are on the top part of the K-shaped economy and to hell with the rest! These same people wanting $10 gas will likely be the first ones squawking because they can't use their mobile devices or get their door dash delivered…
@Packaddict-1993
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
I’m down for the fascism. Everyone must be productive or they don’t eat make room for the old and disabled but if your perfectly fine be productive or don’t it’s your decision don’t expect me to pull me and my families weight on top of yours.
@Exeptshunz
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
For once I agree with Bernie 😂 burn this shit down. Its the only way corrupt elites will truly be held accountable. People won't vote with their wallet? Make the wallet a non factor.
@thillsification
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Tom really doesn’t understand all the reasons why people hate AI and dismisses those of us who hate it and don’t want to use it as people he lumps together as “those who don’t want to retrain”. Dude, there are a lot of deeper reasons that have nothing to do with that. Retrain for what? AI takes all the HARD and FUN parts out of problem solving that many of us went into the fields we went into for. Despite what he THINKS, it’s not that we can’t retrain, it’s that AI makes everything that used to be fun and fulfilling and makes it cheap and valueless. If he had gotten into software and game dev before AI and gotten a taste for what it used to be before AI, maybe he’d understand that. It’s not hard to use AI, it’s just very uninteresting. Plus a lot of us have moral and ethical qualms with it
@bigislandchickens6747
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Dude, I know I've asked this before but could you post a replay of that s*** . Not all living your time zone. As a matter of fact on Thursdays when you're broadcasting I'm at work . I would love to attend one of your classes but I can't cuz I'm at work . 2:09:46
@Bull-v5h
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
1:47:06 same💯💯💯
@Bull-v5h
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
1:43:59 💯
@josephcohen9480
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
"Served the country" how is that logical you have served the oligarch class, militarily industrial complex, and bloodline families. How have you served the US populace?
@edwardbarnes6991
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Voting should be based on how much tax you pay. More tax = more votes. If you don't pay taxes you have no skin in the game.
@reginaldpots5765
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
33:28
I mean it keeps happening. Swalwell and Feng Feng weren't a coincidence.
@edwardbarnes6991
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Did you say Elon wants to launch a 100 million tons of satellites per year? If a satellite is 40% dry mass aluminum that is 40 million additional tons of aluminum or about a 50% increase in global aluminum production.
@Truthtalks86
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Fuck the teams. Both of them.
@LimbLengtheningJourney
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Inflation has been far higher than growth in real wages for quite a while. For starters, they don't even talk about real inflation. They cite the CPI lmao.
@SepticWizdom
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
Getting an EIN is an extremely straightforward and fast thing to do. It seems a bit disingenuous to say it’s a big pain that you know from experience.
@osmbsmy.706
November 12, 2026 at 3:07 am
So… New York is sated if you repaint the amazon trucks and make them wear pink instead of Amazon blue?