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The 2026 Senate Elections Based on NEW POLLS in EVERY Battleground STATE

The TEC Show | October 17, 2026



The 2026 Senate Elections Based on NEW POLLS in EVERY Battleground STATE — which races could decide control of the Senate? We break down the polling discussed in this update, the closest matchups, and Democrats’ potential paths to a Senate majority.

From Texas and Ohio to North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Iowa, we examine polling averages, vulnerable incumbents, and the seats both parties need to defend. We also discuss Alaska and why races in South Carolina and Kansas deserve attention.

Can Democrats protect their must-win seats and flip enough Republican-held seats to take control? We look at what the numbers suggest—and where uncertainty remains, because polls are snapshots, not guarantees.

Which Senate race are you watching most closely? Share your thoughts in the comments, like this video, and subscribe to The TEC Show for more election coverage and data driven news.

Get more analysis on Substack: https://substack.com/@thetecshow
00:00 – Why Republicans Are Nervous About the Senate
00:37 – The 2026 Senate Battleground Map
01:42 – Democratic Flip Targets & Incumbent Struggles
03:50 – Texas Senate Race (Talarico vs. Paxton)
05:19 – Key Issues: Economy, Affordability & Inflation
06:43 – Latest Polling: Texas
07:26 – Latest Polling: New Hampshire
08:11 – Latest Polling: North Carolina
08:42 – Latest Polling: South Carolina
09:44 – Latest Polling: Maine
10:28 – Latest Polling: Michigan
10:58 – Latest Polling: Ohio
11:29 – Latest Polling: Iowa
12:21 – Alaska Ranked Choice Voting Analysis
12:58 – Final Thoughts & Republican Defense Strategy

#2026Elections #SenateElections #SenatePolls

Written by The TEC Show

Comments

This post currently has 42 comments.

  1. @robmiller1808

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    It's not hard to figure out which side to vote for: NBC News poll: "90% of Republicans and only 29% of Democrats say they are ‘extremely proud’ or ‘very proud’ to be an American." Vote Republican.

  2. @AlexxxGooteeairezz

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Google “highest gas in us history”

    I’ll bet anyone all $258,000 in my bank it’s 2022 middle of Biden STILL

    I’m a Republican so I actually work for a living instead of protesting and spending my money on hair dye tattoos and piercings❤

  3. @ftt210

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    All of these Republicans only vote on Trump poor policies and it doesn’t matter if the debates are considered a tie! Especially in Iowa where the tariff policies hurt all farmers!

  4. @Mr.Majestic77

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    God willing, after November 3rd, the Democratic Party takes the majority, in the U.S. House of Representatives, for the 120th U.S. Congress, as well as a Democratic Blue 💙 tsunami 🌊 in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections, such as :

    Georgia Governor Elect, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA)!!!
    [A] The 84th Governor of Georgia;
    [B] The first Democratic Governor since the 80th Georgia Governor, Roy Barnes (D-GA), who served as Georgia Governor from 1999 to 2003;
    [C] The first Black African-American Governor of Georgia;
    [D] The first female Governor of Georgia.

    Georgia U.S. Senator Elect, Jon Ossoff (D-GA)!!!
    A possible U.S. Presidential candidate in 2028, as a possible Jon Ossoff & Wes Moore (D-MD)
    [Maryland Governor, Elect!!!]
    2028 U.S. Presidential & Vice Presidential Ticket.

    Florida U.S. Senator, Angie Nixon (D-FL) Elect!!!
    The first Black African-American female Florida U.S. Senator;

    Florida Governor Elect, David Jolly (D-FL)!!!
    [A] The 47th Florida Governor;
    [B] The first Florida Democratic Governor since the 41st Florida Governor, Lawton Chiles [1930-1998] (D-FL), who served as Florida Governor from 1991 to 1998.

    Texas U.S. Senator Elect, Jamees Talarico (D-TX)!!!
    The first Democratic Texas U.S. Senator, since Bob Krueger [1935-2022] (D-TX), who served as Texas U.S. Senator from January to June 1993;

    Texas Governor Elect, Gina Hinojosa (D-TX)!!!!
    [A] The 46th Governor of Texas;
    [B] The first female Governor of Texas Governor;
    [C] The first Democratic Texas Governor since the 45th Texas Governor Ann Richards [1933-2006] (D-TX), who served as Texas Governor from 1991 to 1995;
    [D] The first Hispanic female Governor of Texas.

    Maryland Governor Elect, Wes Moore (D-MD);

    New York Governor Elect, Kathy Hochul (D-NY);

    California Governor Elect, Xavier Becerra (D-CA);

    North Carolina U.S. Senator Elect, Roy Cooper (D-NC);

    South Carolina Governor Elect, Jermaine Johnson (D-SC);

    South Carolina U.S. Senate Elect, Annie Andrews (D-SC);

    Michigan Governor Elect, Jocelyn Benson (D-MI);

    Michigan U.S. Senatorl Elect, Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI);

    Minnesota Governor Elect Elect, Amy Klobuchar (D-MN);

    New Mexico Governor Elect, Deb Haalabd (D-NM);

    Alaska U.S. Senator Elect, Mary Peltola (D-AK);

    Iowa U.S. Senator Elect, Josh Turek (D-IA);

    Kansas U.S. Senator Elect, Adam Hamilton (D-KS);

    New Hampshire U.S. Senator, Chris Pappas (D-NH);

    Maine Governor Elect, Hannah Pingree (D-ME);

    Maine U.S. Senator Elect, Troy Jackson (D-ME);

    Ohio Governor Elect, Amy Acton
    (D-OH);

    Ohio U.S. Senator Elect, Sherrod Brown, (D-OH);

    Wisconsin Governor Elect, David Crowley (D-WI);

    Nevada Governor Elect, Aaron Ford (D-NV);

    Oregon Governor Elect, Tina Kotek (D-OR);

    Blue 🌊 tsunami of Democratic elections, for the 120th U.S. Congress (U.S. House of Representatives & U.S. Senate), to include Blue 🌊 tsunami of Democratic elections, in Gubernational (Governors) races, after the November 3rd Midterms. The Republican GOP will do every underhanded trick to steal the Midterms, but voting 🗳 will neutralize any Jim Crow 2.0 tactic, from the Republican GOP. Early vote if possible!
    Vote Blue 💙 don't no matter who!!!
    Now is NOT the time to over think it and get cute in the voting booth, by voting Republican (you all see how that turned out) or even worse, in refusing to register to vote and/or staying at home refusing to vote.

    Please remember, the ultimate revolt, opposition and protest against U.S. oppression, from the corrupt Republican GOP is to EARLY 🗳 VOTE! It's so advantageous to early vote, as registered voters can vote at any voting facility, during early voting, than voting on the day of, at your destinated voting poll.

    Unfortunately, during this current voting suppression environment, from the POTUS D.J. Trump + VPOTUS J.D. Vance Republican GOP-based Administration, who has become deceptive and desperate in bribing for votes, after the Republican GOP, that has been divideding and destroying the U.S. since January 20, 2025.

    The Republican GOP as a political party, will continue to distract, oppress and divide, until the conclusion of the Midterms, will their strangle hold off the 119th U.S. Congress.

    Ladies and Gentlemen, PLEASE vote 🗳!

    As of Saturday October 18, 2026, we all have ONLY 16 days, until the November 3rd Midterm General Election(s) . Please, ensure you, your friends and loved ones are registered to vote. Again, if possible and allowed in your state, PLEASE DO THE EARLY VOTE 🗳! With that being said, early voting, in multiple states, is currently either already in pogress or will commence in a few days.
    _____________________________

    Please utilize independent news media outlets on politics, on social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram, unbiased news app Ground News, unbiased news website Ripl, independent legacy media outlets such as PBS news and C-SPAN, along with certain legacy mainstream media such as MS Now (formerly MS NBC), C-NBC, ABC News and to a certain extent Republican GOP Skydance controlled CNN, CBS News, along with Fox News, as legacy mainstream media news outlets.
    ____________________________

    Full list of states with Midterm General Election(s) early voting in-person start dates

    September 18th to Present
    Early voting has already begun
    in Minnesota, Virginia, South Dakota, Vermont, Illinois, California, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Indiana, Ohio, Wyoming, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas,
    Rhode Island, Tennessee,
    North Carolina, Washington,
    Massachusetts and in Nevada;

    *October 19th
    Early voting staring early next week (Monday)
    in Alaska, in Colorado,
    in Connecticut, in North Dakota,
    in South Carolina, and in Texas;

    *October 20th
    Early voting staring early next week (Tuesday)
    in Louisiana, in Missouri, in Utah
    in Hawaii, and in Wisconsin;

    *October 22nd
    Early voting staring next week (Thursday)
    in Delaware and in Maryland;

    *October 24th
    Early voting staring next week weekend (Saturday)
    in Florida, in New York,
    in New Jersey, and in West Virginia;

    *October 26th
    in Washington D.C;

    *October 28th
    in Oklahoma;

    *October 29th
    in Kentucky;

    *October 31st
    in Michigan.

    States unfortunately with no early voting :
    –Alabama;
    –Mississippi (in-person absentee starts 45 days prior to November 3rd);
    —New Hampshire;
    –Oregon;
    –Pennsylvania (absentee and mail-in balloting applications, 50 days prior to November 3rd).
    ___________________________

    Rather your a Democrat (i.e. Progressive Democrat, Democratic Socialists, Centrist-Moderate Democrat or Blue Dog Democrat), an Independent, voting for Green Party or Libertarian, the mission is to show up and vote 🗳, and as it stand to make any difference, we have either [1] vote Democrat or [2] maintain what the current MAGA GOP narrative, and vote Republican.

    Eventhough the Republican GOP-based POTUS DJT Administration will reject the Midterm Elections, I'm still doing the early vote. As of 2026, we all have the resources to combat and neutralize voting oppression, civil rights oppression, and financial hardships, from the Republican GOP and this current Republican GOP-based Administration.

    In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if Republican GOP-based POTUS Trump Administration attempt to pull some stunt to reject the Midterm Elections, if the majority of votes are Blue (Democratic), and the current Administration receiving a SCOTUS ruling, in favor, once again, for the Republican GOP, to reject the most likely Blue 🌊 tsunami of Democratic 🗳 votes, in the Midterm Elections. Eventhough the Republican GOP-based POTUS DJT Administration will most likely reject the Midterm Elections, I'm still doing the early vote.
    _____________________________

    Official Non-Spam/Non-Scam Voting Assistance Websites, Listed Below

    To research the candidates your voting for PLEASE go to Ballotpedia.org (https://ballotpedia.org), which is a digital encyclopedia of American politics and the nation's premier resource for unbiased information on elections, politics and policy.

    Please go to Vote.org (https://www.vote.org) to Register to 🗳 vote, check your registration, see what's on your ballot, locate your polling place, *LOCATE WHERE (AND WHEN) EARLY VOTING IS TAKING PLACE PLACE*, track your ballot, and get election reminders.

    For those living in Georgia, residents in Georgia can also go to mvp.sos.ga.gov/s/
    to check your voting registration status, by typing [1] the first initial of your first name, [2] your full last name, [3] the current county you reside in, [4] your Date of Birth (D.O.B) and click "Submit".

    Please go to Vote411.org (https://www.vote411.org). Vote411.org was launched by LWVEF (League of Women Voters Education Fund) in 2006, and is a "one-stop-shop" for election related information, that provides nonpartisan information to the public with both general and state-specific information, for you on EARLY VOTING OPTIONS, election dates, voter qualifications, voting registration deadlines, voting I.D. requirements, polling place locations, factual data on candidates in various federal, state and local races, and absentee ballot information.

    ***Again, I can't stress enough PLEASE utilize:
    [1] Ballotpedia.org at https://www.ballotpedia.org , [2] Vote.org at https://www.vote.org , and
    [3] Vote411.org at https://www.vote411.org .

    Please utilize multiple independent news media on politics, on social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Independent legacy media such as PBS news and C-SPAN, along with certain legacy mainstream media (while they may be a hit or miss at times) such as CNN, ABC News, and MS Now (MS NBC). CBS News and Fox News as legacy mainstream media are more misses than hits.

    PLEASE Vote 🗳 as if your life depends on it, because it does.

  5. @bridgettetraveler658

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Look at Ms. The Democrats have poured a lot of money in Ms! Ms almost turned Blue for Governor. The republicans cheated Brandon Presley out of the Governor's race! Corey Booker came to Ms to speak for Scott Colom 2 wks ago. Scott Colom is running against a lady Senator incumbent who spoke about old fashioned lynchings & she'd have a front role seat. Don't count Ms & La out. Trump is making the southern states in America come to our senses & voting BLUE!!!

  6. @Safc73

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    As a Brit on the outside looking in can you please clarify if the Dems take the Senate can they overturn Trumps policies of supporting the evil Putin and replace the sanctions Trump lifted ?

  7. @anjelkaa4380

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Hello from Australia. When I look at your state of Maine I'm reminded of a politician we had who was nicknamed the cockroach because she always survived much like Susan Collins.

  8. @wayneprice6731

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Specifically, I "see" Dems netting SEVEN SENATE SEATS — NC, TX, AK, OH, KS, SC and ME. Also, I "see" Dems having "practicable pickups" opportunities in IA (Indie), FL, LA, AR and OK. That's my 2¢, and I'm sticking stalwartly behind it! 😊

  9. @wayneprice6731

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    The most salient difference between my predictions — Dems will retake the House 230—205 and Dems will retake the Senate 54—46, netting SEVEN seats along the way — and those of "experts" is that I made mine fully TEN MONTHS AGO and have stood stalwartly behind them. 😊

  10. @dorfone

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    At the rate the Republicans are falling and considering that a lot of Republicans will stay home rather than voting for Trump or those awful Commie Socialist Dems, I very much doubt the Republicans will win and seats in the House or the Senate. They have cooked their cook goose and are now burning the heck out of it. That only assumes there is actually an election this November. I would not hold my breath.

  11. @deanbalouris330

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Question for you – we are at 18 days out. Are the number of undecided voters shrinking or staying the same? I think that when there isn’t a shift downward it indicates a dissatisfaction with either candidate. Your thoughts, please.

  12. @nickmorrow7629

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Sir, the current inflation rate is not 3.7%. The way inflation data is reported these days is very deceptive. The figure of 3.7 % is simply the total inflation in the last 12 months so it is mostly a trailing indicator and not representative of the current inflation rate. Last month inflation was reported as .6% so .6 times 12 = 7.2 which is the current inflation rate.

  13. @nadineohealy4094

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    Ken paxton doesnt have to do anything , he's waiting for the big super pac to kick in, plus a little bit of good old republican cheating. And Talarico, with all his good work and amazing fund raising is in a toss up. How can that be.

  14. @Jeff-y3d7m

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    I think the electorate is finally waking up and are getting tired of MAGA, and government telling us what to do. To me it looks like an awakening when Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina are turning blue. This is a government set up by the people and for the people. People are upset right now, you can see it in the polls.

  15. @wilfredovega1814

    October 17, 2026 at 4:11 pm

    🗣 On November the 3rd (18 more Days to go), don't forget to Vote all those Spineless MAGA Republicans ( 🐘 ) out of the Senate and *the House of Representatives*. As an American 🇵🇷 🇺🇸 , I will be Voting for all Democrats ( 🫏 ) Blue 💙 Up ⬆ and Down ⬇ the Ballot Box 🗳 to save America. Every single Vote matters!

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