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Can Sanctions Actually Collapse Iran? China Just Said No

Tom Bilyeu | August 22, 2026



Welcome back to Impact Theory. In this episode, I dive deep into the economic, technological, and cultural shifts that are defining our current moment. The conversation focused on the unprecedented moves by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as he attempts to control long-term bond yields, what that means for the U.S. economy, and how this growing government intervention could reshape the markets—and our future.

One concept I unpack is the rapid advancement and increasing hostility toward AI data centers, revealing just how high the stakes are in the ongoing innovation arms race. A key theme that emerged is the widespread cultural malaise in America—a lack of self-belief that stands in stark contrast to countries like China, where confidence is fueling aggressive growth and technological adoption.

We also explore the complications of U.S. sanctions, the real consequences of regulatory overreach, and the urgent need for renewed competition and innovation. Throughout, I push back against the narrative of inevitable decline and urge us to remember what made America the world’s powerhouse—our willingness to innovate, compete, and face hard truths head-on.

We wrap up with a powerful debate on climate change, examining whether ingenuity and human-driven progress—or top-down central planning—will define our path forward. This episode is a call to wake up, reclaim our edge, and double down on building a future worth fighting for.

0:00 Intro
1:43 US Treasury Bond Buy Back
16:44 US’s Plan to Takeover Stablecoins
28:39 Bessent and Trump sanctions
35:53 The Turn On Data Center
1:09:53 Grocery Stores
1:26:33 Debate between IT alum
1:45:54 YOUTUBE
1:50:49 GTA 6

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Written by Tom Bilyeu

Comments

This post currently has 34 comments.

  1. @Frosty_Tips_

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom saying he thinks China may be tied for first with the US as world's largest economy is absolutely sad and wild. China's books are so cooked they're beyond well done. they're bankrupt. Are you a china plant?

  2. @offensivearch

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    I studied ML and have spent thousands and thousands of hours (pre LLMs) researching, building, and tuning models. I've built many real world ML systems and continue to do so. I am against the scale of the data center build out because I think it is going to do more harm than good to machine learning advancements. This mania is making it harder for ML researchers to access HPC, that is just one of a few negative externalities the VC-backed LLM mania has created for ML research efforts. The LLM mania hasn't proportionately benefitted ML research, in fact I'd say ML has stalled out compared to where it was pre-2022. It seems like more capitalism has worsened ML instead of improving it. The pre 2022 research, and whatever research is happening now, only works because the researchers are insulated from capitalism. Experimentation is the real ingredient for success, capitalism (even the "good capitalism" that is about competition instead of crony capitalism) is only valuable for advancement insofar as it promotes experimentation. Experimentation / empiricism is "the thing", not capitalism or even competition (both of these can lead to degenerate states of no experimentation). Right now, capitalism has killed the spirit of experimentation in ML research in a number of ways. Greedy people tend to destroy things, and making money alone isn't necessary an indicator of the value created in today's post industrial world. I'm of the opinion that capitalism needs to be reformed for the 21st century post industrial world (ie not advocating for socialism, but I think current capitalism also has many flaws). A lot of the capitalist ways of thinking are antiquated in today's world or the foreseeable future.

  3. @offensivearch

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom always conflates LLMs with machine learning as a whole (it's actually ML, AI is just a marketing term). The advances in computer vision, industrial processes, protein folding, alpha zero, etc are not directly related to LLMs. In fact, I've noticed that the massive push towards LLMs has deranged and killed ML research efforts. Before this mania, ML research was much more varied and interesting. It wasn't all a myopic focus on LLMs. The mania has destroyed a lot of good ML labs and cut off a lot of interesting research areas (I've noticed this personally in my searchers for ML research papers before and after Chat GPT 3.5). Note that none of the big gains in ML research required the current level of compute build out. Alpha Zero didn't need it, protein folding didn't need it. We've always had HPC resources for groups that needed it, this scale of build out seems wasteful and stupid. I can't help but think this current push is being driven by greedy idiots who don't know what they're doing, who are just throwing money at it just to throw money (and we all know more money doesn't inherently improve anything). I find it disturbing, and I think it may lead to a third AI winter. Tom also mistakenly attributes the success in machine learning to capitalism, when it was actually researchers inside and outside of academia that facilitated it. Within industry, it was the protection of researchers from "capitalism" that enabled these advancements (eg, tenure-like research positions at Google and elsewhere). Pure unregulated capitalism is IMO killing machine learning right now, and it's mostly lazy uninformed idiots calling the shots right now. Capitalism was about the promise of meritocracy. Right now we have more rule of (idiotic, myopic) greed than rule of merit.

  4. @cooper1819

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom is too idealistic & academic on "Grocery Stores". How much innovations can you see by market economy, and instead could see much profiteering. There are many state or co-operative / labor run grocery stores around the world, providing affordable groceries including US bases overseas. The key way is to provide options, including no-brand options for staples.
    The private businesses maybe hit in short run but often could out perform state run grocery stores being more efficient, provide value-add, experiences that many people willing to pay more for. But the state / co-op run does offer more affordable options to some people, and that's very important.

  5. @thedude7319

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    01:33:15 worked eith engineers do not let them have control. It will bite you so hard. A discussion between 10 engineers, you get 15 proposals to fix something, 10 out of budget or unfeasible, 2 were the tech is not there yet, 3 solutions which non is perfect all with drawbacks for 7% increase in usefulness but with an extra systrm increasing bloat and drag

  6. @leealtman

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom uses the term ¨fossil fuels¨ for hydrocarbon based fuel, which is totally made up BS. The dinosaurs and dead trees are not what oil is made out of. Oil / gas come from very deep under ground close to the earths mantle and over time actually regenerates in the old oil wells.

  7. @miraproject8492

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    There is a misunderstanding about these purchases that keeps getting repeated including at the beginning of this video. Although gets sort of corrected at around 13:00 but not clearly, still implying impact o balance sheet. These are not new loans getting added to balance sheet, these are replacing the short term bills. Treasury started issuing more bills (short term debts) and less treasuries (long term debts). It seems now is reversing it. These market interferences are not necessarily right actions but in this particular case, they are not increasing their balance sheet as this video seems to claim.

  8. @Aipips

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    I see everyone talking about making businesses on youtube they only talk about making online businesses what has worked for me is construction I dropped out of college to start my first roofing company I was told I am stupid I did not care I have worked for myself I build homes I have now learned how to help people get new roof replacements for very little cost, learn how nto do construction once you know how you go start your own business you will have failures my failures were trusting other companies that owed me money trust no one I lost everything twice I love my life I went through struggles but I learned from my mistakes I work for myself you can do it.

  9. @RichardJuice-w4h

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom do a little bit more research on these data centers I agree we need them. I don’t agree with my area having to pay higher property taxes because we have one moving in. They should not be getting tax breaks while my taxes go up in the area.

  10. @stephanietx1573

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    So we're supppsed tp freak out about NY subsidizing groceries?? Come on! The govt subsidizes companies and this admin has damn near nationalized some companies; Intel, US Steel, Westinghouse, mining companies, Trump drugs, Freedom gas stations, threats of investigations of oil companies, pharmacutical companies, poultry companies. Is that free market? And yes private companies do compete against publically funded entities. Uber competes against public transportation, private hospitals compete against public hospitals, etc. If you're not going to freak out about all of it then I can't take you seriously.

  11. @fulloncookin

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Oh so now the Treasury mouth is doing foreign policy and playing hype man? … lets start regime changing all these horrible countries that are killing their people but they dont produce oil…hmmm

  12. @Exeptshunz

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    We've been ignoring the fact AI rebellion is alot based on mass public surveillance attached to said AI. If that could be solved I think alot more people might be on board

  13. @ericgregori

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    The CCP is using misinformation about data centers to manipulate the ignorant sheep.
    Morons worried about a surveillance state while using Tic Toc, and other Chinese apps. People that think that CCP surveillance on America is OK.
    Americas real problem is that GenZ is dumb and gullible.

  14. @NVSTRZ34

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    We cant get behind things because not everyone is feeling the status quo equally. This K shaped economy might be the worst thing that could have happened. I get what Tom is saying, but its being said from a way way way different level of income and wealth. What the American youth is going through right now should be completely unacceptable. We've offshored the jobs, manufacturing, and now put everyone in a quasi surveillance state meant to keep the less wealthy under control.

    The only thing more infuriating then this slow roll on this unprofitable AI business rn, is having to subsidize the cost with our utility bills and 401K's, just to say we arent thankful or thoughtful enough on the subject. Complete BS. We see everyone rich getting richer tell us we are all in this "arms race" together. We sure asf are not.

    Just remember after we spend all this money, China is just going to copy + paste the IP and we will foot the bill. So stupid. Just let your competition do the heavy lifting then steal and redesign as needed. Something our tech overlords dont want to bring up because is could cause a bump in their road to IPO's and billions of spend (of average American worker money).

  15. @stephanietx1573

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    North Korea was under sanctions and "isolated" but Russia and China stuck with them and Russia provided the technology for them to develop their nukes. I would bet that they will stick with Iran. Time will tell.

  16. @anthonyamann2430

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    What's funny about Steve is he is all about China and the way they are doing things. Yet, they are the worst or near worst emitters of emissions. The way he accepts this is that the per capita emissions are less. He can't see that as they become more prosperous, they are more likely to increase in the per capita emissions.

  17. @keha3271

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    China might want to take Taiwan for chip manufacturing., however… this would be an analogous to the Black South African taking the White South African farmland… They won't know how to farm and produce the yeild.

  18. @BenSmith-yp2yd

    August 22, 2026 at 11:04 am

    Tom you sit there and say poor people got good but you are not the one living with stress of living paycheck to paycheck just hoping that you don't have a emergency situation
    Why don't you give up your money and live 40,000 a year

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